China will not have a "silver economy," let alone a "longevity dividend."

China's long-lived elderly are destined to become a burden on families and society, except for the very few who have sufficient wealth to support a comfortable life in old age.

Apart from the more than 20 million retirees within the system who must be protected, the pension replacement rate has already generally fallen below the international warning line of 40%. For example, the per capita pension in Jilin, the lowest, is about 58.7% of that in Shanghai, the highest, averaging only around 3,000 yuan.

It's unknown whether pensions can even be paid after 2040, so talking about a "silver economy" is just nonsense.

With the government absent and the fiscal burden unsustainable, the pressure of elderly care will ultimately shift to families and society, crushing the young.