A late-night bombshell! Mines have been discovered in the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to surge! Are crude oil short positions about to be wiped out?

Attention all Futu bulls! Tonight, the Middle East situation has suddenly escalated fatally, directly igniting the global energy market. The night session for crude oil has already shown a violent surge. If you have positions related to energy or crude oil, you must read this article!

First, let me highlight the most critical breaking news: Reuters exclusively reported on Wednesday, citing informed sources, that Iran has already laid more than a dozen naval mines in a key waterway of the Strait of Hormuz! On the other hand, Trump not only failed to provide a timeline for ending the conflict but also aggressively stated, 'We are not done yet,' claiming that the US will continue 'to take the same action.'

After the news fermented, the latest developments came simultaneously: the US military directly sank an Iranian minelaying vessel that was operating. This directly confirms the authenticity of the minelaying operation; it is by no means a market rumor.

Everyone must soberly recognize the severity of this matter: the difficulty for Iran to lay mines in the Strait is far lower than for the US military to intercept and sink a minelaying vessel. Such actions simply cannot be stopped. The Strait of Hormuz is the 'lifeline' of global oil transportation, with nearly one-third of the world's seaborne crude oil trade passing through here. If Iran is determined to block the shipping lanes, it doesn't even need a large number of mines; just a few scattered minefields are enough to make all oil tankers worldwide hesitate—after all, no shipowner or cargo owner, no matter how eager to make money, would gamble with an entire ship, a full load of crude oil, and the lives of the crew.

Impacted by this bombshell news, Brent crude oil in the night session surged by over 4% in a straight line, with prices fluctuating around the $90 per barrel mark. Just before this, CCTV News reported that Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), announced on the 11th that member states have reached a consensus to release 400 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves to address the risk of global energy supply disruptions caused by the Middle East war.

But the reality is harsh. This largest-ever reserve release plan can at most alleviate short-term market anxiety; it cannot solve the core contradiction at all—the safety of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. If the shipping lanes are blocked, no amount of reserves can fill the gap in the global crude oil supply chain. The market's skepticism about this plan is already clearly reflected in the rise in oil prices. Even more severe, the Iranian military directly issued a stern warning on Wednesday: the world should be prepared for oil prices to reach $200 per barrel!

The Situation Will Only Continue to Escalate, Oil Prices Are Far From Peaking

In fact, in last night's market report, I clearly predicted to everyone: the escalation of bombings and increased oil price volatility mean this 'Prince of Persia Revenge' has just begun. The Iran situation will only continue to escalate, and military actions by all parties will only become more aggressive.

Now, looking back, the prediction has been fully confirmed. Iran's moves have escalated from long-range strikes to the critical action of blocking global oil shipping lanes, and the US and Israel show no signs of backing down. It's highly likely that when we wake up tomorrow, we will see news of another attack on facilities within Israel, and it's not even ruled out that there will be core-targeting strikes like 'blowing up power plants' from Red Alert, which would completely intensify the conflict.

It's no exaggeration to say that once oil prices break through the key $100 per barrel mark, this round of market movement will be completely out of control. Trump's rhetoric can at most temporarily suppress market sentiment; the IEA's release of 400 million barrels of strategic reserves is already the last resort. The only thing that can truly end the rise in oil prices is the resumption of normal navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. But with the start of the minelaying operation, this hope is becoming increasingly slim.

The conclusion is clear: oil prices will continue to hit new highs, and it's already on the way!

The Market Will Enter a Grinding Vicious Cycle, Don't Operate Blindly, Beware of Getting Hit from Both Sides

In the next few days, the global capital market is highly likely to fall into the most torturous vicious cycle for retail investors: oil prices surge → commodities follow suit across the board → global tech stocks collectively fall under pressure → US stocks return to a market where big-cap stocks are favored. When you see oil prices rising all the way and finally make up your mind to chase the rally and enter the market, suddenly, the US unilaterally announces a ceasefire, or Israel can't withstand the pressure and takes the initiative to stop. Oil prices immediately plummet from a high platform, and those who chased the high are directly trapped at the peak. This kind of back-and-forth market movement is the most grinding. After being tossed around a few times, you'll find that no matter whether you go long or short, every move seems wrong, and in the end, you'll be ground down to the point of questioning your life.

Therefore, the safest strategy at the moment is only four words: stay unchanged to cope with all changes. Don't gamble on short-term rises and falls, and definitely don't chase rallies and sell in panic. Just keep a close eye on three core signals. The appearance of any one of them will be a major turning point for the market. Before they appear, the market will continue to fluctuate and continue to be torturous.

1. Has the Strait of Hormuz resumed normal navigation? This is the most critical prerequisite. If the shipping lanes are not open, the logic for oil price increases remains valid.

2. Have Israel's core energy facilities (power plants, etc.) suffered large-scale strikes? This directly determines whether the conflict will escalate comprehensively and completely ignite market panic.

3. Has the US military substantially stopped military attacks? Key point: Trump's verbal statements don't count; it must be real, tangible cessation of action.

Many people always think this conflict will end quickly. But don't forget, when the Russia-Ukraine war first broke out, no one thought it would evolve into a years-long war of attrition. The current situation in the Middle East is far more complex than Russia-Ukraine, involving more interested parties. So why do you think this Iran conflict will end quickly?

This 'Prince of Persia Revenge' is far from over. In tomorrow's market session, the first to be harvested will likely be the crude oil shorts!

$CNOOC(00883.HK) $F GX OIL(03097.HK) $China Universal CSI Energy ETF(159930.SZ)