$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)⚡️Ahead of NVIDIA's earnings, JP Morgan conducted a buyer survey, with the key points as follows:

1) Over the past month, investors' positions in NVIDIA have remained unchanged, and the phenomenon of crowded positions is still relatively severe;

2) JP Morgan's buyer survey shows that buy-side institutions still expect NVIDIA to achieve a "double $2 billion" outperformance — that is, earnings exceeding company guidance by $2 billion, and the guidance for the April 2027 fiscal quarter exceeding Wall Street expectations by $2 billion (excluding revenue contribution from the Chinese market).

Since the beginning of 2024, NVIDIA's earnings outperformance does not seem to have significantly boosted the stock price, but this time the market sentiment is different.

Against the backdrop of difficulty in finding new investment targets, investors are increasingly concerned about the significant downward revisions in valuations for Broadcom and NVIDIA — currently, NVIDIA's valuation is already below the average of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index components.

Concerns about OpenAI's funding situation and market share loss (worries intensified further last weekend, with CNBC reporting that the company lowered its 2030 computing power target) have given rise to the market narrative that "TPUs are superior to Blackwell architecture chips," and this narrative is difficult to reverse;

At the same time, investors are skeptical of Meta's recent vague announcement.

Furthermore, high memory prices also make the market worry that NVIDIA's 75% gross margin level faces long-term risks.

Despite the many concerns mentioned above, the market generally agrees that NVIDIA's performance over the next year will remain strong (most institutions expect the company to clearly reiterate or raise its $500 billion revenue target); NVIDIA's GPU Technology Conference is about to be held, and the Optical Fiber Communication Conference will also be held concurrently, at which time NVIDIA's co-packaged optics technology innovation is bound to become a hot topic.

It is worth mentioning that over the past three years, NVIDIA's stock price has followed an important market pattern — namely, gains are mainly concentrated in the first half of the year.

The above content is for financial knowledge sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.