📉 Xiaomi Group's Next Week Outlook: After peaking at 37.50, will the 'high-altitude dive' be a deep pit or a rebound trap?
All hardcore traders, the recent wave of consecutive declines from 37.50 to 35.36 in $XIAOMI-W(01810.HK) has left many long positions "eating noodles in the dark." After quantitative indicator analysis, the logic for next week's trend is very clear—this is a typical composite structure of "oversold rebound + secondary decline." The following is a technical deduction based on 15-minute to daily chart levels. It is recommended to save this first and then compare with the market:
📊 Market Status: Momentum Exhausted, Spring Compressed to Extremes
• Extreme Oversold: The K value of the 15-minute KDJ has fallen to 10.9, entering the overbought zone.
• Chip Collapse: The 2/20 daily candle penetrated the MA20 (35.66) with high volume, breaking the support.
• Core Support: The current stock price is falling back to the VPOC dense area (35.26-35.37), which is the core cost zone of previous long-short battles, providing short-term technical support.
⏱️ Next Week's "Rhythm Map": Precise Timing (Important Node Alerts)
We divide next week's momentum release into three stages. Please focus on the corresponding time periods:
1️⃣ Monday to Tuesday:【Low Volume Recovery Period】 ⚖️
Due to the closure of the Stock Connect (for Hong Kong) on Monday, the market is in an "oxygen-deprived" state, and volatility will significantly decrease. It is expected to trade sideways with extremely low volume within the 35.00-35.40 range. As the Stock Connect resumes on Tuesday, oversold forces will drive the price for a technical retest of the MA20 (35.66).
2️⃣ Wednesday:【Weekly Momentum Peak · Long-Short Battle Day】 🔑
This is the most critical window of the week! Technical analysis predicts a strong long pulse in the morning, targeting the 36.00-36.30 area.
• Note: This is highly likely a **"long trap."** Because the daily chart KDJ death cross has formed, the MA5 (36.50) above acts as a heavy pressure. If the price surges with high volume but cannot hold, it will be the best time for shorts to enter or longs to reduce positions.
3️⃣ Thursday to Friday:【Momentum Exhaustion and Shakeout Risk】 ⚠️
Rebound momentum will be locked on Thursday, leading to stagnation. Friday is the week's biggest "liquidity sell-off risk day." After 3:00 PM, short-side resonance may occur, retesting the 35.00 psychological level, and even probing 34.80 for support.
🎯 Four-Dimensional Tactical Operation Suggestions
【Plan A: Aggressive · Left-Side Bottom Fishing】 🛡️
• Entry: Build positions in batches when a stop-falling signal appears in the 35.00-35.20 range on Monday/Tuesday.
• Risk: Left-side trading carries extreme risk! This is a counter-trend bet for a rebound, highly susceptible to continued downward momentum.
• Position Control: Heavy positions are strictly forbidden! It is recommended to keep the base position below 15%.
• Defense: Unconditionally stop loss if it falls below 34.70.
【Plan B: Conservative · Right-Side Ambush】 ⚔️
• Entry: Give up the small profits in the first half of the week. Wait until Wednesday's surge above 36.00 and subsequent pullback, or act after Friday's sharp drop stabilizes.
• Logic: Follow the major adjustment trend on the daily chart, either taking a short position in the high resistance zone for a "rebound confirmation" or buying back after Friday's accelerated bottoming.
💡 Hidden Element Summary
Xiaomi's current form is like "landing unsteadily due to jumping too high." The current fall has not yet hit bottom. Wednesday is the week's "false high," and Friday is the week's "true pressure." Traders need to remain patient. Remember: all low-volume rallies near descending resistance levels are opportunities for you to exit, not reasons to chase the rise.
#XiaomiGroup #HKStockTechnicalAnalysis #TradingStrategy #HardcoreTechnical #CandlestickChartAnalysis #InvestmentNotes
⚠️ Disclaimer:
The above analysis is solely based on deductions from quantitative technical models (such as ATR, KDJ, VPOC, etc.) and does not constitute any investment advice. Market fluctuations are influenced by various factors, and past performance does not indicate future results. Trading carries risks, and investment requires caution. Please make independent decisions based on your own risk tolerance.
The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the stance of the platform. The content is intended for investment reference purposes only and shall not be considered as investment advice. Please contact us if you have any questions or suggestions regarding the content services provided by the platform.
