
Rate Of Return
Commemorative1. The "thrill" of options is specifically designed to harvest overconfidence.
- A few hundred bucks can potentially win tens or hundreds of thousands.
- Doubling or multiplying your money in a day is all too common.
- As long as you guess right once, you'll start thinking:
I have talent / I understand this / I'm different from others.
The brain automatically glorifies success and downplays failure:
Remember a win for a lifetime, but dismiss ten losses as just "bad luck."
2. The vast majority have no idea what they're actually losing.
90% of retail investors only know:
- Buy calls
- Buy puts
- Bet on direction
They completely don't understand:
- Time value is eating away at their money every day
- A drop in volatility can halve an option's price instantly
- Out-of-the-money options are highly likely to expire worthless
Ignorance → Fearlessness → Extreme overconfidence.
The less you know, the more you think you can win.
3. Survivorship bias + social media amplification
All you see is:
- People flaunting their doubled positions
- People flaunting overnight riches
- People flaunting "prophetic predictions"
No one shows:
- Losing everything
- Getting margin called
- Getting repeatedly harvested
The world through your eyes:
Everyone is making money, only I haven't made any yet.
Confidence naturally soars.
4. Human nature at its core: Everyone thinks they are the "chosen one."
Psychologically called overconfidence bias:
- 80% of drivers think their skills are above average
- 80% of stock investors think they can beat the market
- 80% of options players think they can catch the big move
People are born not believing they will be part of the "majority who lose."
Everyone thinks they are in the 10% who make money.
5. The design of options is to make you "think it's simple."
- Click to buy
- Choose one of two directions
- Max out the leverage
The simpler something is, the more confident it makes people.
People respect complexity, but underestimate simplicity.
6. The harshest truth:
Options aren't about who's right more often, but about who survives longer.
- You can be right 10 times, but one wrong heavy bet can wipe you out.
- You can make small profits 10 times, but one extreme market move can erase it all.
But people only think:
I must be right this time.
In a nutshell
Options, with their extremely low barrier to entry, potential for huge gains, and simple operation,
amplify human greed, overconfidence, and wishful thinking to the extreme.
Most people aren't trading; they're being fooled by their own brains.
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