On the first day of every new year, I always prepare for the worst-case scenario of the year

so that I can handle everything calmly each year

It's a rather disappointing New Year's wish... but often very useful

When I first read the following chapter

I reminded a friend of the potential toxic risks they were carrying

Half a year later, they became addicted to options and futures, accumulating over five million in debt

This later led me to seriously study and summarize those failure cases

in order to identify certain root commonalities and avoid them from the source

For example, some personalities shaped by childhood upbringing are naturally prone to gambling

Confronting the most fragile, incompetent, and stubborn parts of human nature and fixing them is not shameful; on the contrary, it is an essential part of a strong person's advancement

On the first day of the New Year, I want to give this reminder to my friends (I have many friends in Longbridge, so often I share content as a personal record and also for sharing with friends, but it often turns into a kind of public arrogance of teaching others what to do. This is the limitation of this community, so I can only manually add a note myself: only to be shared with those who are destined to receive it. Not interfering in others' karma is a basic principle)

In my eyes, offense is a reward mechanism; there is action, there is feedback

While defense is a punishment mechanism that confirms failure or waits for confirmation, confirming one's own incompetence

And people subconsciously are unwilling to admit temporary failure and incompetence

Therefore, people tend to prove they are not incompetent through frequent offense

Instead, they frequently expose themselves to risks without realizing it

Always preset the maximum risk, bravely admit your own limitations

Wait patiently, advance by retreating—this is what I often do for self-warning

Life is like this too: startups can fail, love can come to nothing, marriages can end up in court, close friends can betray you…

And always being prepared for the worst in advance always allows one to remain calm at all times, comply with the laws of all things in the world, respect human nature, let go of unrealistic obsessions—it is the strongest bullish view on the quality of life: ease and fulfillment

Returning to investment and this year, still identify the two biggest potential extreme risks:

1. Continuously examine the greed in my own human nature;

2. The volatility of repeated "wolf is coming" scenarios before Donald Trump's midterm elections, and even possible extreme black swans;

I hope to engrave these two risks in my mind every day from now on, and constantly optimize the response plan daily.

Additionally, I also set two clearer requirements for myself:

When thinking about a problem, define the boundaries first; otherwise, don't ask;

When discussing a conclusion, sort out the essence and propose a solution; otherwise, don't mention it.

Good thinking doesn't need an immediate answer, but it will guide daily actions towards doing useful work in the right direction

㊗️ May this year be more peaceful, more rational, and wiser for all.