🚀 Cover Title: SMIC (SMIC): How Long Can This 'Broken Wing Rebound' Last? Friday Will Be the Final Showdown Moment!

"In a short-selling waterfall, all upward surges, without volume support, ultimately serve only for a more perfect fall." — Hidden Element Quantitative Strategy

📊【Technical Panoramic Scan: Dilemma and Divergence】

Currently, the daily chart of $SMIC(00981.HK) is at an extremely delicate "dead knot" position:

Moving Average System: MA5/10/20 are in a standard bearish alignment. Today's closing price of 70.35 remains firmly suppressed below the bull-bear dividing line of MA60 (71.77).
Indicator Divergence: Although a small volatility rebound triggered by a 15-minute bottom divergence has appeared, the OBV (On-Balance Volume) remains completely still, indicating a severe price-volume divergence. This suggests that large external funds are still on the sidelines, and the current rise is more like a "bird" flapping its wings for the last time during its fall.

⏱️【Core Time Window This Week: Three-Act Scenario Projection】

1️⃣ First Stage: High-Level Luring of Bulls (Tuesday 02-10)

Technical Logic: The price pullback will touch the dense resistance zone of 71.80-72.50.
Drill Warning: Pay attention to the turnover rate at this level. If it cannot break through with increased volume, this will form a technical "false breakout trap." The suppression at the White Tiger position materializes, with a high probability of a pullback after a surge. It is recommended that short-term bulls take profits here.

2️⃣ Second Stage: Momentum Exhaustion (Wednesday-Thursday 02-11/12)

Technical Logic: The MACD red bars shorten, and bulls attempt to defend 68.50.
Drill Warning: The market enters a period of stealthy decline and repair, with continuously shrinking trading volume. This is the dead calm before the storm. Those with empty positions must remember "don't release the eagle until you see the rabbit."

3️⃣ Third Stage: Extreme Volume and Liquidity Washout (Friday 02-13)

Technical Logic: Volatility explosion day. A deep "smash and dig" action is expected, testing the ultimate support level of 63.80 - 64.00 downwards.
Drill Warning: This day will see panic selling from longs killing longs, but it is also the "alchemy" moment. If it can stabilize with volume here and form a long lower shadow (single needle bottoming), the technical "ding" bottom pattern will begin to emerge.

🏹【Two-Way Tactical Drill】

⚔️ Follower Faction (Right Side): * If the rebound on Tuesday meets resistance at 71.80 and a 5-minute top divergence appears, decisively reverse to bearish.
Defensive Level: Holding firmly above 73.05.
🛡️ Ambush Faction (Left Side):
Aim for the panic moment on Friday. Try to find gaming opportunities after liquidity dries up around 64.00.
⚠️ Left-Side Trading Risk Warning:

Batch Position Building: Strictly prohibit going all in. It is recommended to use a 1-2-2 formation for batch order placement.
Emotional Stop-Loss: If the closing price effectively breaks below 62.00, it indicates structural damage. Exit unconditionally.
Position Lock: Left-side positions should not exceed 30% of the total position. The bet is on moving average repair, not a reversal.

💡 Hidden Element Notes:

Current SMIC has a "heavy hammer" pressing down from above and a "deep abyss" waiting to be filled below. The red chart at the beginning of the week is an escape wave; the smash at the weekend is a golden pit. Identify the nodes correctly. Don't try to catch feathers when the bird is falling; wait to pick up gold after it lands and stabilizes.

Data as of 2026-02-09. The above views are based on quantitative model projections. The market carries risks; invest with caution.