20260205 After Hours

$AMD(AMD.US) options, betting on a rebound failed, loss 80

$Amazon(AMZN.US) dropped sharply after hours, the call options betting on earnings will probably turn into 1 cent tomorrow, loss 212

Participation is what matters, just the direction was wrong.

What's still worth looking forward to is NVIDIA, which will report earnings on 2.26. Maybe this is the expectation to slow down the decline. It's also fortunate that I bought options with over 70 days to expiration, greatly increasing the margin for error. Currently guessing there's support at $168.

Whether the Nasdaq can stop falling tomorrow is the most important thing. It's likely to find support at 21898, currently 642 points away, about 2.5%.

Market valuations are too high, and this decline is needed to squeeze out the excess and create space, otherwise a real reversal can't form. If no space is squeezed out, then any rebound would just be an escape opportunity.

What worries me most is that $NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) currently has no support, only 642 points away from the last low of 21898, and might find support at this level. Don't be overly pessimistic, nor overly optimistic, and don't blindly try to catch the bottom. Wait for market sentiment to recover. Even if the decline stops, funds should enter in batches, leaving more room for error.

For those with empty positions, this is an opportunity. As long as you're in cash, there are always opportunities. ALL IN has too little margin for error.