Rate Of Return
Tesla Fortune winnernvo 估值分析
Conclusion: It's already close to the fair value under pessimistic conditions, time to increase positions! $Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US)
This is a detailed summary of the NVO valuation model incorporating calculation logic. We're using your preferred simplified valuation formula based on the Rule #1 system (a quick calculation method when the discount rate and growth rate are similar).
🧮 Core Calculation Logic (The Math)
The core of this model lies in finding "how much $1 of earnings will be worth in the future."
Formula: Fair Value = Current EPS × (2 × Growth Rate)
Logic: This assumes that a quality company's reasonable P/E ratio is about 2 times its growth rate (i.e., PEG=2). When the expected annualized return (discount rate) is set at 15% and is similar to the growth rate, the complex discounted cash flow formula usually simplifies to this quick calculation result.
Ideal Buy Point: Fair Value × 0.5 (i.e., 50% margin of safety)
Ideal Sell Point: Fair Value × 1.4 (i.e., 140% premium)
📝 Parameter Inputs
Current EPS: $3.60 (based on full-year 2025 financial report)
Growth Rate (G):
Optimistic expectation: 15% (historical average level, assuming the company overcomes temporary difficulties)
Conservative expectation: 10% (constrained by price wars and patent expirations)
🚀 Detailed Calculation Process (Using the Optimistic Model as an Example)
Determine Fair Value:
$$3.60 (\text{EPS}) × [ 2 × 15 (\text{Growth Rate}) ] = 3.60 × 30 = \mathbf{\$108.00}$$
Determine Ideal Buy Price:
$$108.00 × 50% = \mathbf{\$54.00}$$
Determine Ideal Sell Price:
$$108.00 × 140% = \mathbf{\$151.20}$$
📊 NVO Valuation Summary Table
| Scenario | Growth Rate (G) | Fair Value | Ideal Buy Point (Margin of Safety) | Ideal Sell Point (Overvaluation) | Current Status ($48.09) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Optimistic (Recommended) | 15% | **$108.00** | $54.00 | $151.20 | ✅ Undervalued (Buy Zone)
(Current price below $54) |
| Conservative | 10% | *$72.00** | $36.00 | $100.80 | ✋ Watch (Hold Zone)
(Current price above $36) |
*Note: Under the conservative scenario, $3.60 × (2 × 10) = 72.
💡 Conclusion
Your current holding cost is $49.08, just below the optimistic model's ideal buy point ($54).
As long as you believe NVO can maintain an average growth rate of 15% over the next 5-10 years (even if it temporarily declines in 2026), now is a very solid opportunity to increase positions or hold.
If NVO falls below $36 (the conservative model's buy point), that would be a "golden pit" created by extreme market panic.
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