Trending Creators in 2025202601 review +9.97%
1. Overall Performance:
January total return +9.97%, vs. Nasdaq +9.02%.
Main gains came from space stocks ASTS RKLB, storage STX, chip INTC, Magnificent Seven META, etc.;
Main losses came from AI infrastructure ORCL, crypto stocks CRCL BMNR MSTR COIN HOOD, etc.
Biggest single-day loss was 1.30 -4.69%. Many positions didn't recover ("V back"). Failing to hold on the last day was regrettable.
Second biggest single-day loss 1.20 -4.47% when Nasdaq fell -2.39%. Since most holdings were growth stocks, this relative decline was acceptable.
2. Key Reflections:
1) This year's theme may be structural divergence.
Nasdaq rose 0.95% in Jan, Dow +1.73%. While indices showed little change, extremes emerged - storage, space, metals sectors performed well. This structural trend may continue. Without exposure to high-growth, high-imagination supply-demand mismatch industries, returns could be very limited.
2) Hot sectors.
Some popular sectors show signs of "buy the rumor, sell the news." For sectors severely deviating from fundamentals or beyond one's understanding, risk control comes first - don't chase the last penny.
Silver recorded its biggest single-day drop yesterday (-30%+). FOMO buying at highs would have caused massive losses. Storage, a sector with supply-demand mismatches and profit explosions, saw some stocks rise 150%+ in January. After earnings, high-volume bearish candles appeared at highs. Further gains are possible, but medium/short-term capital exit signs are evident.
Space + defense will see continued catalysts: international competition, SpaceX activities and potential IPO. The biggest catalyst would be SpaceX going public. Before that, most capital likely won't easily abandon core positions, especially the "space duo."
Minor metals (Greenland, geopolitical friction, national security, state investments) will see ongoing catalysts.
Note: both space and minor metals currently lack earnings support.
3) On Crypto.
For crypto stocks, the core variable is BTC - it's the index and maximum consensus. Be prepared for BTC at 80K, 75K, 70K or lower. Only firm establishment above 90K might confirm an uptrend.
I remain firmly bullish on this industry. Trends always develop imperceptibly - maintain some exposure, have a reasonable plan, and stay engaged.
4) Next steps.
Core positions: Mag7+BRK+INTC+ORCL, combining shares and calls. Currently accumulating Microsoft and Apple on dips. Both reported earnings - Apple remains steady, while Microsoft faces market concerns about AI capex, slowing cloud growth, and declining cash flow. Within Mag7, tier one is clearly Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia (evident from major index weightings). Most imaginative: TESLA and META.
Allocate some capital to understandable high-growth, high-imagination industries, focusing on sector leaders.
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