$Sandisk(SNDK.US)

The US stock market creates a new hype every now and then, set your stop-loss before jumping in!

I remember when I bought sharplink and circle, I lost money on both. My mindset back then was similar to now. I watched night after night, too scared to enter, but eventually couldn't resist and put in 30% of my position. The result was buying sharplink at 60 and cutting at 48, then it surged to 80 but I was already out. With circle, I bought at 250, didn't sell at 290, and the next day it flatlined at 250. My stop-loss at 240 proved right, otherwise it would've kept falling to the current 60s.

The difference with this stock compared to sharplink and circle might be that storage is indeed a real demand. But the current price is too high - even accounting for dynamic PE, it should be way over 50. Plus, storage doesn't have deep moats - they're not the only player, and there's no ecosystem lock-in like with CPUs. It's not going to be the next NVIDIA.

I'm staying out this time - no money beyond my circle of competence. At least if I'm not in, I won't lose. Trust the law of large numbers - playing stocks I don't understand might pay off once or twice by luck, but overall it's guaranteed losses since the information edge lies with others, not me.

If the market drops tonight, I'll add to my Nasdaq position. If it rises, I'll just observe.