$Albemarle(ALB.US)Conclusion: On January 28, ALB fell about 6.9% intraday (current price around $180.8), mainly due to weaker-than-expected lithium price rebound + sector sentiment weakening; currently not suitable for heavy positions immediately, can build a small observation position with strict stop-loss, wait for stabilization signals before considering adding positions.

I. Core reasons for the plunge (January 28)

1. Weak lithium price rebound: Slow recovery in spot lithium carbonate prices, market concerns about oversupply and weak EV demand, suppressing profit expectations.

2. Sector capital outflow: Collective pullback in lithium mining stocks, combined with broader market risk preference fluctuations, leading to profit-taking.

3. Technical breakdown: Fell below $190 support level, 50-day moving average under pressure, short selling pressure amplified.

4. Earnings expectation game: While Q4 performance improved, 2026 guidance didn't exceed expectations, positives already priced in.

II. Is it suitable to buy?

- Not suitable for heavy positions immediately: Lithium price and demand inflection point unclear, downtrend not stopped, easy to buy halfway down.

- Can build small observation position (2 shares ≈$362): Controllable risk for tracking inflection point, but must meet:

- Stop-loss: Sell immediately if falls below $175 (key 3-month support), limiting single trade loss to ~3%.

- Observation period: 1-2 months, wait for lithium price to stabilize above $14/kg and stock price to break above $192 with volume.

- No adding positions: Firmly no additional capital before stabilization conditions are met.

III. Key observation indicators (consider adding only after meeting 3+)

1. Price: Closing price above $192 with weekly volume expansion, weekly chart showing 2+ positive candles.

2. Fundamentals: Lithium price continues rising (stabilized above $14/kg), inventory reduction accelerates, management raises Q1 guidance.

3. Market signals: Institutional target prices stop falling/rise, rating upgrades, sector capital inflows.

IV. Action checklist (strict execution)

Action Item Specific Settings

Buy timing Buy in batches at current price or pullback to $178-180, avoid chasing declines

Stop-loss $175, clear position immediately if triggered

Observation period 1-2 months, exit decisively if no stabilization signals

Add conditions Only after meeting 3+ indicators, then small DCA or batch adding

Risk warning: If lithium price falls again or demand disappoints, ALB may decline further, observation positions need timely stop-loss.