$Ondas(ONDS.US)When ONDS stock price reaches $20, the first batch (October 2025 $425 million financing) of 73.92 million subscription warrants ($20 exercise price) will become in-the-money, with expected medium-to-large selling pressure, potentially releasing 73.92 million new shares, diluting existing shares by over 100%.

Immediate impact of selling pressure assessment: Holders profit about $9/share (cost $11.5), strong motivation to exercise and sell, increasing float by ~73.92 million shares (total shares doubled), short-term oversupply depressing stock price.

Buffer factors: Requires shareholder approval to increase authorized shares (not fully confirmed yet), partial cash settlement possible; company could receive $1.5 billion cash injection, helping growth offset dilution.

Market views on Reddit and analysis suggest $20 as "ceiling resistance"—if broken, warrant exercise could instead become funding catalyst; but without approval, selling pressure delayed, current $12 price far below, pressure temporarily eased. Overall seen as high-risk catalyst, not immediate threat.