$Microsoft(MSFT.US) experienced a strong bottoming out and returned to a relatively stable trading level in 4 trading days. Now it depends on what direction this earnings report can point to.

Before this earnings report starts, let us remember one concept: "AI is the future" is dead. For companies like Microsoft, what we want now is "AI's cost reduction, efficiency improvement, growth acceleration that is tangible and visible". Here are the key points to focus on in this earnings report:

1. Azure's growth rate, 30% is the benchmark, if it slows down, it's all over, if it's super fast, it will take off (referring to 40%+)

2. Whether enterprise users' AI usage has gradually shifted from testing feasibility to formal deployment. This is not only important for Microsoft but also for the entire market, including non-AI companies.

3. Expenditure. This is the most awkward. Everyone knows that AI costs have skyrocketed, so excessive spending is not acceptable, but too little will make people suspect you are shrinking. At the same time, can you show some progress in controlling costs, such as whether Maia can provide some numbers.

4. Win10 support has ended, are there any signs of growth in Windows OEM and AI PC.

5. Guidance. 2026 guidance, including whether revenue is constrained by enterprise demand or data center supply and computing power.

6. Copilot should be watched, but I think there's not much to see. Gaming business: I want to see how much MS has squeezed out by destroying its brand, which has nothing to do with the stock price but is related to my interest and deep understanding.

Breaking above 500, looking for 400 below, where do you think Microsoft will go next? At this stage, I'm willing to buy more at 370. But I feel like I won't be able to buy in the short term.

If I have to guess, I'll bet big.

財報公布後的兩周 微軟股價會往哪裡去?

Single Choice

  • 快速上破500
  • 快速下行找400
  • 440-490之間遊蕩
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