Has it really finally broken through? Review from January 22-27
The Hang Seng Index has finally broken through a key resistance level upwards. After several fluctuations and pullbacks from 27,200, it has now closed above 27,000 again today. Under these circumstances, there is a high probability of a genuine upward breakout $UB#HSI RC2809K(56366.HK); the defensive level below is at 26,730.
The IPO market remains strong recently, with $BUSYMING(1768.HK) rising over 70% in the grey market. The profit-making effect of such new stocks is still present. This will likely drive market funds to chase semi-new stocks with solid fundamentals and market appeal, such as $MINIMAX-WP(100.HK) and $KNOWLEDGE ATLAS(2513.HK).
In the tech sector, $Alibaba(BABA.US) and $BABA-W(9988.HK) are performing quite well, with a high chance of forming an upward trend at this level; the defensive level is at 163. $XIAOMI-W(1810.HK) and $MEITUAN(3690.HK) are still in a downtrend. If the Hang Seng Index is to continue rising, these two weakest tech giants need to find support at this level. $TENCENT(700.HK) has a key level at 625. Unless it successfully breaks through this level, it remains relatively weak for now. Most investors are still watching $SMIC(981.HK) to see when it can follow the sector's rise. If it can truly break through $UB#SMIC RC2607L(66546.HK); the defensive level below is at 73.
As gold $VALUEGOLD ETF(3081.HK) continues to rise without a clear downtrend, related gold mining stocks like $ZIJIN GOLD INTL(2259.HK) and $ZIJIN MINING(2899.HK) are also in a strong upward trend. Under these circumstances, a reversal is unlikely to happen soon. Based on past experience, if a reversal does occur later, it generally takes at least two to three months to confirm. New consumer stocks show mixed performance: $LAOPU GOLD(6181.HK) is rising strongly due to gold, while $POP MART(9992.HK) has a weaker rebound. However, there are too many voices considering short positions recently. Based on experience, this situation is unlikely to lead to a real decline and will likely continue to move sideways.
The Nasdaq Index is also poised to break through its historical high. For now, it's clear that mega-cap tech stocks are outperforming growth stocks.
$Micron Tech(MU.US) remains the strongest semiconductor chip giant, while memory and storage solution-related companies like $Sandisk(SNDK.US) are still favored by funds and rising.
$Intel(INTC.US) has likely halted its previously strong uptrend after earnings. Having fallen below the key level of 45, it may struggle to rise again in the short term. $Tesla(TSLA.US) is still below the critical level of 455, so caution is needed to see if it forms a double-top pattern. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) has temporarily resolved its downtrend crisis. If it reclaims 195 or higher on any subsequent day, watch for a potential challenge of 210 or higher. $Apple(AAPL.US) has seen a key rebound in its stock price due to an AI software update for the MacBook Mini. However, major resistance lies at 277. $Coreweave(CRWV.US) is rising due to NVIDIA's funding support, but note that selling pressure is quite high. $Ondas(ONDS.US) is hovering around the key level of 12. Unless it stabilizes here, I'm not yet confident in confirming a renewed uptrend.
Positions and Trading
$UB#ALIBARC2707B(59537.HK): Focus on whether Alibaba can successfully lead the Hong Kong market's sustained rise this time.
If the Hang Seng Index can indeed rise this time, it will be a very strong trend opportunity.
Soybean oil could become the commodity with the strongest upward trend next. In this case, closely monitor related deployments.
Reflection
What is the essence of trading? After years of reflection, I’ve realized that the core of trading lies in positioning long or short and determining whether other market participants will offer higher (for longs) or lower (for shorts) prices when it’s time to exit. Profit in trading ultimately depends on the actions of other market participants.
Deployment
For now, the Hang Seng Tech Index still lags behind the Hang Seng Index, but some tech giants at the borderline between first- and second-tier are performing well. Today, the strongest is $BILIBILI-W(9626.HK), which has broken through a major weekly resistance level and is likely to continue rising. Given Gen Z's loyalty to its platform, I wonder if it could become the top long-video platform. Watch for long positions $UB-BILI@EC2603A(21260.HK); defensive level at 252.
In the U.S. market, keep an eye on growth stock $Fluence Energy(FLNC.US), which has been on the watchlist; key support is at 26.3.
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