The darkness before dawn, the third-generation eight products can hold on for a year or two without any problem. Following the existing orders for delivery, more and more car owners are joining, and the user profile is completely breaking through the circle. The brand influence will only double, which is a rare virtuous cycle and the most stubborn, difficult yet solid advantage.

The pressure mainly lies on the supply chain side. NIO is stubbornly committed to full-stack in-house R&D, destined to traverse many uncharted territories. Unlike other brands that rely on modifying traditional chassis, few leading parts manufacturers were willing to follow up in the early stages. They could only find small and medium-sized suppliers with aligned philosophies to grow together while stepping on pitfalls. Whether it's headlights, motors, batteries, brakes, or lidar and shock absorbers, everything is either developed in-house or deeply co-developed. This is also the core reason why production capacity often fell short before, but it also gives NIO an absolute advantage in architectural integration, allowing it to form a unique cost barrier in the future.

From the first generation's survival by piling on materials to the second generation's reckless growth by splurging money, frantically building moats, and expanding the brand matrix, the releases of 60, 90, Firefly, and ET9 were like mock exams one after another. Now, with the third-generation eight in production ramp-up, whether it can stabilize orders, withstand delivery pressure, and avoid large-scale quality issues is the final exam. NIO and the supply chain are answering the questions with all their might, and the production ramp-up is the last big question. Dawn is coming, Blue Sky Coming.

LongPort - 纯牛马的修行之路
纯牛马的修行之路

$NIO(NIO.US) There are rumors that the 26 subsidy is back these two days. Regardless of whether it's true or not, this will inevitably cause some consumers to continue to wait and see. I checked with fellows from two NIO Houses in Shanghai, and the order situation is not ideal. It's a bit difficult to achieve the guidance of 43K in December. Even if ES8 delivers 20K, L90 and 5566 are likely to decline further compared to November. 2025 is basically like this.

Let's make a prediction for December

Nio

ES8 18K

5566 & others 7K

Onvo

L60 5K

L90 5K

Firefly 6K

Total 41K, deliveries hit a record high, but the guidance won't be achieved.

Hope to surprise me by proving me wrong

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