The darkness before dawn, after all, the product strength of the third generation can hold on for a year or two. With the delivery of existing orders, the expansion of the car owner community has greatly broadened the demographic profile, and brand influence is doubling in growth. This is a rare, positive development process, and also the most difficult and challenging, yet the strongest advantage. The pressure is on the other leg. NIO adheres to a core strategy of global forward self-research, destined to venture into uncharted territories. Compared to other brands that improve on conventional chassis, the initial supply chain phase will inevitably see few major component manufacturers following suit, forcing NIO to grow alongside small and medium-sized suppliers who share the same vision, often hitting walls along the way. This is reflected in many key components like headlights, motors, batteries, brakes, LiDAR, and suspension—either self-developed or deeply co-developed. This is also the main reason for the fluctuating production capacity across the current generations of vehicles, but it also brings NIO ultra-high integration and unique cost advantages in architecture. From the first generation selling shells to survive, to the second generation's all-out, aggressive expansion and fortification of moats, and the brand matrix lineup—60, 90, Firefly, ET9—each launch was like a full-scale mock exam. Now, with the third generation's production ramp-up, whether it can retain orders, withstand delivery pressure, and avoid large-scale quality issues is the final exam. NIO and its supply chain are working together to answer the questions. Now, the production climb is the final big question. The sky is about to brighten—blue sky coming.

LongPort - 纯牛马的修行之路
纯牛马的修行之路

$NIO(NIO.US) There are rumors that the 26 subsidy is back these two days. Regardless of whether it's true or not, this will inevitably cause some consumers to continue to wait and see. I checked with fellows from two NIO Houses in Shanghai, and the order situation is not ideal. It's a bit difficult to achieve the guidance of 43K in December. Even if ES8 delivers 20K, L90 and 5566 are likely to decline further compared to November. 2025 is basically like this.

Let's make a prediction for December

Nio

ES8 18K

5566 & others 7K

Onvo

L60 5K

L90 5K

Firefly 6K

Total 41K, deliveries hit a record high, but the guidance won't be achieved.

Hope to surprise me by proving me wrong

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