Why won't you lose money if you buy Bitcoin at any time and hold it for 4 years?
In the previous article, we mentioned that holding Bitcoin for any 4-year period would not result in a loss.
The chart below shows Bitcoin's CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate), where the green line represents the 4-year CAGR, indicating the average annualized return over a 4-year holding period.
The green line has always been above 0, meaning that buying and holding for 4 years at any time would result in a profit.
Why does this phenomenon exist? Among all the assets in the world, why is Bitcoin the only one that can guarantee no loss over any 4-year period?
The reason lies in the fact that Bitcoin is different from other financial assets—it is driven by mathematics and algorithms. To mimic gold, Bitcoin artificially creates scarcity by halving its supply every 4 years.
It is precisely this halving event every 4 years that leads to Bitcoin's 4-year bull-bear cycle, where it typically rises for 3 years and falls for 1 year.
The fact that it guarantees no loss over any 4-year period further validates the accuracy of the 4-year cycle theory. Each bull-bear cycle of Bitcoin repeats the pattern of the previous one, maintaining consistency in its general trend, which ensures no loss over any 4-year period.
This is like the gears of a clock—each component must fit perfectly to ensure the system continues to function. Bitcoin's bull market peaks and bear market bottoms are consistently 4 years apart, a coincidence in timing that perfectly embodies this theory.
From 2010 to 2021, buying Bitcoin at any point and holding it for 4 years would have resulted in a profit, making it a miracle in financial history.
I know some might say that history does not predict the future—just because it happened in the past doesn't mean it will continue.
But what I want to say is, when something keeps repeating and cycling with clear patterns, there must be a reason behind it—it's just that you haven't yet understood the underlying principles and mechanisms.
This is like our ancestors, who knew that the sun rises and sets every day and that there are four seasons in a year. But due to the limitations of their time, they didn't know why. Later, we learned that the reason is the Earth's rotation and revolution.
The same logic holds for Bitcoin—it follows a similar pattern, but people just haven't yet figured out the underlying mechanism. So by now, you should understand that Bitcoin is not a financial asset but a physical phenomenon.
Don't analyze it from a financial perspective—look at it from a physical one, and many things you couldn't understand before may become clear.
The current bull market in the crypto space has ended. Liquidate Bitcoin, crypto stocks, and MicroStrategy.
Bitcoin price at time of writing: $89,000
$iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF(IBIT.US) $Strategy(MSTR.US) $Coinbase(COIN.US)
The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the stance of the platform. The content is intended for investment reference purposes only and shall not be considered as investment advice. Please contact us if you have any questions or suggestions regarding the content services provided by the platform.
