[86/100] China's population trend: long-term decline, aging intensifies, and labor force shrinks

Below is a comprehensive analysis of China's population change predictions (short-term, medium-term, long-term) and the main influencing factors:

📉 1. Current Population Trends (2020s)
🌍 Population Decline Has Begun

• China's population has been decreasing for several consecutive years. In 2024, China's population decreased by approximately 13,900 people, marking the end of continuous growth.

👶 Low Birth Rate Difficult to Reverse

• Even with relaxed birth restrictions (allowing up to three children), the birth rate remains far below the replacement level (around 2.1). Many young people choose not to marry or have children due to economic and life pressures.

📅 2. Short-Term Predictions (to 2030)

📊 Projected Population Trends
According to official Chinese and research institution forecasts:

• The total population will continue to decline, potentially dropping from the current ~1.4 billion to around ~1.36 billion.
• The working-age population (typically 16–59 years old) will further decrease, with its proportion shrinking.
• The elderly population (60 years and older) will rise to about 24%–25%.

▶ Conclusion: Over the next 5–10 years, negative population growth may become the norm, with aging continuing to intensify.

📈 3. Medium-Term Predictions (to 2050)

📍 UN and Other Agency Forecasts

Different agencies have slightly varying predictions:

• UN "Medium Forecast": China's population is expected to drop to ~1.31 billion.
• Other models predict: By 2050, China may enter a more pronounced period of population decline.

👵 Aging Pressure Intensifies

• China's elderly population ratio will rise significantly, with the dependency ratio (non-working-age to working-age population) increasing substantially.

📉 4. Long-Term Predictions (to 2100)

🧠 Based on Different Scenarios

Demographic studies and models show:

📌 Even under the most optimistic scenario, China's population will still decline significantly, far below the current 1.4 billion level.

🧠 5. Key Driving Factors

📉 Declining Birth Rate

• High child-rearing costs, education and housing pressures, and changing attitudes toward marriage and childbirth have led to a persistently low birth rate.

👵 Rapid Aging

• The proportion of the population aged 60 and above is rising, indicating increasing elderly care burdens.

👩 Shrinking Workforce

• The working-age population (16–59 years old) is declining, and labor shortages will constrain economic growth.

🧭 Policy Impact

• The Chinese government has introduced policies to encourage childbirth, including childcare subsidies and extended maternity leave, but the effects are limited in the short term.
  

🔍 6. Summary

✨ The overall trend is clear: population decline, rising elderly population ratio, and shrinking workforce.

This will have profound implications for China's future economic growth, pension systems, labor markets, and social structure.