The old cycle ends, and the new cycle is not far away

$SentinelOne(S.US)hanghai Composite Index sh000001$ The market trend is like a roller coaster in slow motion, with a fierce downward momentum but a weak rebound, making people nervous. Yesterday, capital outflow reached 40.1 billion, the number of stocks waiting to rise piled up to 3,878, and trading volume shrank by 121.9 billion. The 1.5 trillion trading volume may seem substantial, but it's actually stagnant—no one wants to be the "early bird" to buy the dip, and no one has the heart to cut losses, leaving the market in a deadlock.

Speaking of which, the index is still following the previously projected path, with the dip and rebound in the 5-minute chart aligning. However, the "ferocity" of the dip exceeded expectations. No wonder—how fast or deep the drop is depends entirely on market sentiment, which is as unpredictable as the weather. How can it be calculated precisely?

The current structure needs to be clarified: The daily and weekly charts are still in a correction, the 120-minute rebound looks more like a "last gasp," and the a+A central oscillation in the 30-minute chart suggests that even if there's another surge, it's likely the last gasp of a dying struggle. The "script" outlined last Thursday hasn't deviated, with the only minor difference being that the recent surge was slightly higher, now looking more like a "bull trap"—giving hope only to snuff it out, a classic weak-market oscillation tactic.

In reality, these short-term predictions are at best "technical skills"—don't take them too seriously. What really matters is the big picture. Obsessing over how much the market fell today or whether it will rise tomorrow only leads to the trap of "missing the forest for the trees." The reason for discussing this is to use the specific trend to explain the logic of transitions between major and minor trends, serving as a learning case. But remember, when news becomes chaotic, minor trends can easily "derail," and that's when you need to focus on the "anchor" of the major trend.

The index has fallen for three consecutive days, and sentiment is frozen. Yesterday afternoon's counterattack failed to hold, exuding a sense of weakness. In the current situation, small, half-hearted rebounds no longer interest capital. Only a "violent bullish candle" can revive the lifeless confidence. Capital did try to counterattack yesterday, but everyone acted independently, failing to unite, resulting in wasted effort.

On the other hand, the ChiNext board caught some attention, standing steadily above the 10-day moving average after days of oscillation—a small bright spot in a weak market.

Today, capital will attempt to "break the ice." Whether it succeeds depends on whether any sector steps up to lead. If positive feedback forms, next week could bring relief; otherwise, it's one step at a time—no use rushing.

Now, a few sectors worth watching:

1. Commercial Aerospace
The Zhuque-3 launch succeeded, and while the recovery failed, it was a valiant effort. Official media reports show industry insiders are quite approving, while outsiders feel disappointed. But scientific research is never smooth sailing—Musk's Starship failed six times before finding its way. Our first recoverable rocket achieving launch and orbit insertion is already impressive—it deserves more tolerance. Short-term capital has been drawn to the satellite sector, temporarily suppressing the rocket direction. But with the Long March 12A launch imminent on the 15th, this sector is highly likely to rotate back. Opportunities around rockets, materials, and satellites can be explored. If there's divergence in tomorrow's early session, low-entry opportunities can be seized. Later, focus on the Qianfan Constellation and national team platforms, waiting for sector sentiment to stabilize before digging into material stocks.

2. Semiconductors
Moore goes public today, followed by MuXi, memory chips "Two Stores," lithography newcomer Xinkailai, and others. This sector won't cool down easily. Market expectations are high, and the trend hinges on the opening—if it opens too high, beware of a "high-open, low-close," as divergence is common in weak markets. If it opens reasonably and coincides with an index recovery, this sector could become the main offensive force.

3. Robotics
Yesterday, it was clearly the center stage, with a dazzling debut, obvious capital inflows, and orderly first-board stocks. Backed by Sino-US policies and multiple event catalysts, this is a short-term focus. Tomorrow, watch for consecutive board-breakers—once they gain momentum, they could form a new main trend.

In short, don't fear risks too much today. After three days of decline, the cycle is nearing a turning point. As the old cycle ends, a new one isn't far away. The more this happens, the bolder you should be in seeking opportunities—"be fearful when others are greedy" applies now. Going against the tide is how you profit.