US Stock Market Update: December 4th, consolidating for an upward move with Fed rate cut expectations as the biggest catalyst!
Hello everyone! Today is December 4, 2025. US stocks continue to fluctuate slightly near historical highs, with the S&P 500 closing at around 6,859 points, up 0.15%, the Nasdaq up 0.2%, and the Dow up about 80 points. Overall, market sentiment is optimistic, but tech and crypto-related sectors are volatile, with capital awaiting the final signal from next week's Fed meeting. Let’s briefly discuss the trends and my views—feel free to join the discussion~ Key data as of the latest trading day: Index
Closing Level
Daily Change
Monthly Gain
Yearly Gain
S&P 500 (US500)
6,859.73
+0.15%
+0.93%
+12.91%
Nasdaq (US100)
25,669
+0.2%
-0.23%
+19.3%
Dow Jones
47,882.90
+0.86%
N/A
N/A
Highlights: Financials and communication services led gains, with Boeing surging 10.1% (due to raised 737/787 delivery expectations). Crypto stocks like MicroStrategy and Coinbase rebounded 5-6%. Small caps (Russell 2000) rose 2.48% this month, still undervalued.
Concerns: ADP employment data unexpectedly weak (-32k vs. expected +5k), initial jobless claims fell to 191k (3-year low, but with Thanksgiving noise). This reinforces the "soft landing" narrative but raises short-term volatility.
Trend outlook: Neutral-bullish, rate cuts as the core variable. Short-term weakness: S&P resistance at 6,880-6,920 (dual pressure from institutions and quant trading), support at 6,830-6,800. If unable to hold 6,880, consolidation likely; breaking 6,830 may test 6,800 (trend line). Many traders on X share this view, suggesting light positions and waiting for clearer signals.
Long-term bullish: December seasonally strong (historically 3rd-best month, S&P avg. +1%), with a 67% chance of a Fed cut next week (futures-implied). Markets bet on two cuts by Jan. and policy stability. Economic data is cooling (weak manufacturing, soft consumption), but corporate earnings remain resilient (S&P double-digit profit growth). Small caps and value stocks are cheap (15% discount), with AI and energy still hot.
External links: US stocks and crypto are highly correlated, with BTC rebounding to ~9.3k but facing trendline resistance. SEC chair hints at "full tokenization of financial assets" as inevitable, to land in years—a major boost for Coinbase and accelerating traditional finance integration.
My suggestions (not investment advice, just sharing): Long opportunities: Watch small-cap ETFs (e.g., IWM) and energy stocks (oil mid-cycle at $60/barrel, E&P companies undervalued). In tech rebounds, watch Nvidia/AMD on pullbacks.
Short risks: If jobs data stays weak, tech giant valuation bubbles (Tesla called "absurd" by Burry) may burst. Portfolio tips: Long bonds/staples (e.g., PG, PEP), short AAPL/DAL, light options to avoid volatility.
Risk note: Next week’s FOMC is key. If only 25bp cut vs. expected 50bp, markets may correct 5%. Short-term bears abound—cash is king.
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