Will Hong Kong and US stocks pull back at the same time? Reply from September 24 to 25

The last breakfast of the journey was a traditional starchy meal: ramen, udon, ochazuke, and white rice. After this breakfast, I was full of energy in the morning, but even two hours of exercise probably wouldn't fully consume it.

The Hang Seng Index may experience its first significant pullback since the upward trend began. Apart from good news and almost all inflows, the suspension of northbound capital during the Golden Week is also an opportunity. If it closes below 26,100 on any day, we need to consider hedging with $Hang Seng Index UBS 84 Bear T.P (61651.HK)$, with the defensive position at 26,500.

In terms of tech stocks, the most talked-about recently must be $XIAOMI-W(1810.HK). Yesterday, a breakout seemed possible after surpassing the key level of 58, but today's large-volume drop below 55 proved it was likely a false breakout. Amid a series of major announcements, the stock price neither rose nor fell, indicating very pessimistic market sentiment. Unless it can close above 56 next week, we must be very cautious about a potential head-and-shoulders top pattern.

$Alibaba(BABA.US) $BABA-W(9988.HK) has already achieved its target after breaking 170. The consequence of an overextended trend is a likely deeper pullback, with the first target at 161 and the second at 156.

$MEITUAN(3690.HK): If it falls below 98 again, it will likely continue its downtrend. $SMIC(981.HK): If it closes at or below 70 next week, be very cautious about a potential weekly-level short-term peak. $TENCENT(700.HK) is the first among tech stocks to enter a high-range consolidation, with resistance at 660 and support at 627. $POP MART(9992.HK) is very likely to enter a sideways range, with resistance at 280 and support at 250.

The Nasdaq's short-term trend is relatively weak. Since Fed officials repeatedly emphasized the need for more cautious rate cuts, the dollar index has bottomed and rebounded. At the same time, the index has started to weaken further, but for now, it remains a typical pullback, with short-term support at 24,330 and 24,000.

The strongest U.S. stock recently is $Intel(INTC.US). After being acquired by the state, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) stepped in for another acquisition, and more importantly, rumors of investment cooperation with $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) emerged. Clearly, due to the lack of clear investment targets, funds are piling into Intel. This idea is quite reasonable: if Intel truly becomes the "national team," it could bypass tariffs through share swaps. Under these circumstances, it will likely continue to attract large capital inflows.

$Tesla(TSLA.US): After facing strong resistance at 440, watch whether 416 can hold as key support. If it breaks, the next level is 400. $Oracle(ORCL.US): The trend is quite pessimistic. After falling below $BYD COMPANY(1211.HK). Yesterday, due to being on a flight, I couldn't lock in profits in time, and the 300% gain shrank significantly. However, it still allows for repositioning next month.

$HORIZONROBOT-W(9660.HK): Finally closed all positions. After falling below the key $UBXIAMI@EP2606A(14200.HK): Initiated a short position on Xiaomi. Today's trend is critical, potentially signaling a weekly-level reversal.

$XTALPI(2228.HK) is now the only key holding in the portfolio, with the stop-profit level pushed up along the rising trendline at $A GX HSCEICC(3416.HK) remains the defensive core. As the index continues to trade narrowly, covered call ETFs perform best, ensuring stable dividends. Meanwhile, $A GX HSTCC(3417.HK) may offer higher future returns due to the high implied volatility of tech stock options, which should increase premium income. $A GXS&P500CC(3415.HK) is about to announce dividends. Since the S&P's volatility is lower than Hong Kong stocks, the dividend yield may not be as high, but asset price stability and dividend consistency will be better.

Reflection
This futures trade reinforced an important philosophy: the perception of time is phased. It's somewhat similar to Einstein's theory of relativity: one minute next to a beautiful woman feels completely different from one minute in a fly-infested room. Similarly, when a position is in a clear trend, it feels like a breeze. When stuck in choppy markets, the mental toll is indescribable. So why do we endure such difficulties? The same reason—we lack patience.

Deployment
In such volatile conditions, only the renewable energy sector $GX CN CLN EN(2809.HK), as I've repeatedly mentioned, shows a clear uptrend. As robotics and AI concepts heat up, the market will refocus on a critical question: Do we have enough power supply to support AI's computational needs? Thus, renewables have directly transitioned from Phase 1 to Phase 2, breaking the weekly downtrend. Other key sectors—$GX CN ROBO&AI(2807.HK) (robotics), $GX CN CLOUD(2826.HK) (smart cloud services), $GX CHINA TECH(3448.HK) (A/H-share leading tech), $GX CN SEMICON(3191.HK) (domestic semiconductor R&D), and $GX CN EV BATT(2845.HK) (EV and related equipment)—may see temporary pullbacks, but these could present mid-to-long-term opportunities worth watching closely.

For now, most stocks are either overextended or reversing from highs. Only $XPENG-W(9868.HK) $XPeng(XPEV.US) stands out. If it can challenge the weekly-level $95 resistance, it may develop an uptrend. Watch for long opportunities with $XPeng UBS 63 Bull G.C (60527.HK)$, with a defensive position at 84.

Your attention and likes are my motivation to keep sharing. Thank you for your support.