On July 14th, the market added Powell's resignation as a new variable, expecting short-term adjustments in the three major stock indices, with S&P 5700 becoming a key window for strategic positioning.

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The resignation rumors about Powell that started last Friday have stirred the market, which has noticeably cooled down from its previous excitement. As the 'helmsman' of global monetary policy, Powell's departure tests the independence of the Fed's policies, and his potential changes will undoubtedly add variables to the already sensitive U.S. stock market. From the reaction of the market, the pre-market declines of the three major U.S. stock index futures have expanded, indicating possible significant selling pressure after the market opens.

Over the weekend, Trump's statements on tariff policies have put the market under the dual pressures of 'escalating trade friction + monetary policy uncertainty.' This combined effect may further suppress market risk appetite, pushing the three major U.S. stock indices into a short-term adjustment cycle.
The Trump administration's tough stance on tariffs, not only targeting the EU and Mexico, has raised widespread concerns that its next move may once again target China.

$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US) fell 279 points, down 0.63%, closing at 44,371 points. The daily chart maintains a bearish signal.

$S&P 500(.SPX.US) fell 20 points, down 0.33%, closing at 6,259 points, hovering at a high level. Pre-market, it broke below 6,250, with 6,200 being the short-term technical pivot.

$NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) closed at 20,585 points, down 45 points, down 0.22%, showing the strongest performance among the three major indices, with large tech stocks demonstrating unusually strong resilience.

From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite had already formed a volatile pattern at high levels, with significant cumulative gains, and some sectors and stocks are overvalued.

The Dow Jones has already broken through short-term support levels on Friday, while the S&P 500 hovers around 6,250 points. Technical indicators show that overbought pressure needs to be released, and short-term adjustments reflect the market's inherent logic. The short-term adjustments of the three major indices are reasonable, serving as both a reaction to sudden news and a digestion of previous gains and valuation corrections.

$Apple(AAPL.US) closed at 211.16, down 0.59%, showing weak upward momentum. Negative tariff news may trigger further declines. Watch for support around 200.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) hit a new high of 167.89, closing at 164.92, up 0.5%. Strong demand for computing power has fueled market chatter about 4 trillion, 5 trillion, and 6 trillion. Short-term pullback is expected; it’s better to wait and observe, with 130 as a key level.

$Meta Platforms(META.US) fell 1.34%, closing at 717.51, showing signs of a top and issuing a short signal. Avoid in the short term.

$Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) rose 1.5%, closing at 181.31, slightly hitting a new high. Considering the overall market situation, it’s not advisable to chase highs; wait for opportunities around 160.

We expect the market to adjust in July-August, with our two key buying points anchored at S&P 5,700.
5,700 is the lower bound of the S&P 500’s previous volatile range and a historical support level for multiple market adjustments. A pullback to 5,700 would bring the S&P 500’s dynamic P/E ratio back to relatively reasonable levels.

$Nike(NKE.US) fell 2.67%, closing at 72.63, showing short-term declines. It’s more reasonable to watch for opportunities around 67-68.

Fed Watch shows a 64.8% probability of a September rate cut, slightly lower.

After addressing the 'big and beautiful' bill, Trump’s return to tariff issues was expected. He seems to have started 'firing' at allies like Japan and Europe—whether to further harden his stance or to showcase his deal-making skills remains unclear. However, measures targeting production origins in Brazil and Southeast Asia suggest a potential confrontation with China may be imminent.

Facing the current market environment, investors should adopt a 'defensive-first, partial mid-term positioning' strategy, preparing for both scenarios amid volatility: short-term defense, reducing positions, avoiding risks, and refraining from blindly chasing highs.

$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)

$Hang Seng TECH Index(STECH.HK)

$CSOP UST20(03433.HK)

$iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US)

$FI2 CSOP HSI(07500.HK)

$Proshares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF(SQQQ.US)