2025/4/26 Night Report

Medium to Long Term (over 1 year):

USD: P

US Bonds: P

US Stocks: PP

A/H: CC

Gold: CCC

Oil: U

Short Term (days to 2 weeks):

USD: P

US Bonds: C

US Stocks: N

A/H: C

Gold: N

Oil: N

(P = bearish, C = bullish, N = neutral, U = no judgment)

Portfolio Positions:

New Entries:

None

Holdings:

CNOOC, short FXI put

Liquidated:

Key Technical Levels:

XAU 3200, 3000.

SPY 5500

Macro Analysis:

Fundamentals can refer to my summary from yesterday, largely consistent.

First, let’s confirm a few subtle facts as the basis for reasoning:

1. Trump has backed down every time US bonds faced issues.

2. The Fed has started unusually hinting at rate cuts.

3. Trump repeatedly emphasizes ongoing negotiations with China.

Let’s re-examine the market’s primary contradiction—trade negotiations:

Within this primary contradiction, negotiations with China are the core of the core.

Quoting an analysis:

"Japan and Europe will watch the US-China talks. If the US fails to reach a deal with China, Japan and Europe won’t concede quickly, as China will then approach them. The timing is even planned: Japan first, then Europe.

This aligns with the earlier point: it’s hard to bypass China and negotiate exclusionary deals with others, because the US is the world’s top importer, and China is the second. Many countries rely more on exports to China than to the US. If the US can’t provide sufficient security guarantees within 1,500 miles of China’s borders, these countries will inevitably want to see how US-China talks unfold."

China is traditionally key to US hegemony, providing cheap goods and suppressing US inflation.

If negotiations with China fail, inflation will undoubtedly rise, and other trade partners won’t reach meaningful agreements. This leaves the Fed no room to cut rates (doing so would only further undermine its credibility, like the recent independence doubts).

However, China’s firm stance from the outset has exceeded Trump and senior US officials’ expectations—this is easy to observe.

So, there are only two scenarios:

- Trump unexpectedly caves to China at some point (within 2 months, likely within 1 month).

- As described above, directly triggering another stock-bond-currency crash.

By now, it should be clear what portfolio actions to take.