$XTALPI(02228.HK) Suddenly thought of a data point: After the market closed on the 19th, the number of shares held through Stock Connect only increased by 35 million. On the 19th, the short selling volume (short interest in HK stocks) was 40 million shares. Very close. Considering retail investors don't hold much, the recent battle in this stock is mainly between big players and institutions. Assuming retail inflows/outflows are roughly balanced. Since stock borrowing for short selling can only be done in Hong Kong, it means most positions borrowed from HK brokers were exactly taken over by mainland capital on the 19th.

The clash of capital... Could this number be just a coincidence?

BTW, all the above analysis is based on the assumption that this stock has a dominant player, and from a perspective of trading volatility and chip competition rather than long-term investment. Not to be taken as basis for long-term investment. If you can catch those 40% or even 60% wild swings based on such thinking during the process, it would indeed be very exciting. 😁 Tough though.