GDP = 5%, annual growth target achieved; semiconductor collective surge | Today's important news review

0117 Dolphin's Key Focus:

🐬 Macroeconomics/Industry

1. The National Bureau of Statistics released data indicating that the GDP for the entire year of 2024 is projected to be 13,490.84 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.0% increase at constant prices compared to the previous year. Thanks to the rollout of a package of incremental policy measures since the end of September, the final growth rate just meets the target set at the beginning of the year. In December, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with expectations at 3.5%. Dolphin has already published a detailed commentary (click to view): overall retail sales, online retail, and offline dining consumption are all showing weak growth, with growth rates lingering in the low single digits. Notably, the penetration rate of online physical retail in Q4 2024 has declined year-on-year (the first time this year), suggesting that the relative advantage of online channels seems to have (temporarily) disappeared.

2. Today, the semiconductor sector saw a collective rise. On one hand, a spokesperson from the Ministry of Commerce of China stated on the 16th that domestic industries have the right to apply for trade remedy investigations against chip imports from the U.S., and the investigation agency will initiate investigations according to the law; on the other hand, the U.S. Department of Commerce released relevant chip export regulations, reinforcing control measures based on those from October 7, 2022, October 17, 2023, and December 2, 2024. The logic of domestic substitution has been further strengthened.

🐬 Individual Stocks

1. Core Focus on Earnings Report Interpretation and Conference Calls

TSMC:《 TSMC: "The Stabilizer" is Unbeatable?》、《 TSMC: Capital Expenditure Raised to 38-42 Billion in 2025 (24Q4 Conference Call)》

🐬 Leading Sectors

Shanghai and Shenzhen: Water and Soft Drinks, Tires and Rubber, Fertilizers and Pesticides;

Hong Kong Stocks: Silver, Semiconductor Manufacturers, Communication Equipment;

U.S. Stocks: Shipping Ports-Operators, Semiconductor Materials and Equipment, Textiles.

🐬 Attention for Next Monday

1. China's one-year loan market quoted interest rate.

1. January 20 (Monday) is Martin Luther King Jr. Day, and U.S. stock markets will be closed for one day, with no night trading from 9:00 AM to 5:00 PM (Beijing time).

This article's risk disclosure and statement: Dolphin Investment Research Disclaimer and General Disclosure