This week can definitely be called a major economic week with intertwined macro and micro events. First is the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on July 31, and the most critical focus this time is when the rate cuts will actually begin. Although some believe the cuts should start in July, current signals and rhetoric management suggest that the July meeting's primary function may be to acknowledge the recent "good data" on inflation and lay the groundwork for the next Fed meeting—the September 20 meeting two months later—where rate cuts are more likely. Historically, signaling rate cuts has generally been good news for the market.

Friday's non-farm payroll report is equally crucial, especially as the excess savings of low-income groups are gradually depleted and credit card default rates rise. The past few months of non-farm reports have already hinted at cooling blue-collar employment in sectors like dining and temporary hiring, with even the services PMI unusually dipping into clear contraction territory. In the September employment report, both the total non-farm payroll numbers and the employment structure will be key.

For individual stocks, aside from Netflix, Tesla, and Google, the remaining giants are set to report earnings soon. Whether the results will trigger a sell-off or help prop up the facade of the U.S. stock market remains uncertain. Looking at expectations for these giants, Microsoft, after its AI Office narrative was largely debunked, is now relying on Azure to carry its AI story and a recovery in the traditional cloud cycle—making outperformance unlikely.

For Amazon and Meta, two large consumer-facing tech stocks, the outlook matters more than the current earnings. Meta’s narrative has already been leaked by Google, while Amazon, despite decent goods consumption in Q2 U.S. GDP data, shows no clear positive signals in online retail sales. For Amazon, current capital expenditures and short-term profit release timelines are the "make-or-break" factors for its stock performance.

But the most critical right now is still Apple. Short-term, Apple has rebounded somewhat on AI expectations, but its new product launch won’t happen until after September, and core AI features may not arrive until next year, posing short-term revenue risks. On the AI investment front, Apple rarely uses Nvidia chips, so while its capital expenditures may not be as extreme as other giants, R&D costs could surge, warranting caution.