這應該是近段時間以來,我見過的最凶險的財報季了。眼下降息預期已經嚴重收緊,甚至到了加息具有不確定性的階段;整體納指估值偏高,而財報的業績預期卻頻頻暴雷。asml 不說了,台積電調低了行業預期,奈飛二季度付費客戶增長不及預期且明年不會公布會員數了。重要的是目前納指的估值依然較高,而且基本建立在成長預期下。下週四$微軟.US 財報的當季數據意外性不會很大,關鍵是看釋放出什麼預期信息,特別是 azure 和 copilot 的預期。

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