amit
2026.07.27 17:57

This is turning into of the worst days for Semis all year.

Market seems to be reacting to a few things:

- A Chinese state-backed company has started mass-producing its own DUV lithography machines. The market is worried that the development could reduce China’s dependence on Western suppliers like ASML and weigh on future equipment demand

- NVDA backstopping OpenAI’s new datacenter buildout with $250B is making the market think that things are getting a bit too circular

- NVDA investing $5B into a new AI startup once again is creating fears of circular financing

- China just had their second largest IPO ever and it was a memory company which is now making the market think that oversupply of memory and a peak in prices is underway

Trump tried to calm down markets by saying that the US and Iran are talking, which got Oil down 7%, but isn’t really helping the chip stocks. Usually, a drop on oil that big would explode high beta names like semis but the market seems to be taking the China buildout threat seriously.

Effectively, the market is saying that China supply coming through means the constraints that create the pricing/earnings power for the semis is diminishing. I’m not sure if this is actually true, especially given how new these reports are, but it goes to show how fragile the entire semi trade is if a headline like this can wipe out $500B+ from the entire sector today.

As always, if semis go down hard, the software names go up which is why software is rallying heavy today.

Are you buying the semi dip or is this a legitimate concern?

$Micron Tech(MU.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $Intel(INTC.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $AMD(AMD.US)

Source: amit

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