Speedrun | Upcoming Events This Week - [July 13 -

Speedrun | Upcoming Events This Week - [July 13 - July 17, 2026]

Stay informed on events/news for the coming week.

Iran Conflict Update

> The Headlines: U.S. Central Command launched a third round of strikes over the weekend following an IRGC attack on a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz.

> The Chaos: Rhetoric around closing/opening the Strait remains highly erratic.

> The Takeaway: Both sides are burning precious time during this "ceasefire" by trading blows instead of negotiating. You must watch this daily until a final deal is locked in—time is running out.

Earnings Calendar

> The Lineup: Massive week featuring tech structural anchors ($TSMC, $ASML(ASML.US), $Aehr Test(AEHR.US)) alongside big banking ($Goldman Sachs(GS.US), $Citigroup(C.US), $Morgan Stanley(MS.US)).

> ASML Expectations: Morgan Stanley projects Q2 sales at €9B (3% ahead of consensus) and EPS +5% beating consensus. Look for strong EUV/DUV commentary.

> TSMC Expectations: Anticipate stellar 68–69% gross margins, top/bottom-line beats, raised guidance, and CoWoS capacity growth talk.

> The Catch: TSMC's CapEx might technically miss upside expectations solely because ASML is hitting physical EUV shipment shortages.

AI Themes Update

> SOX Technicals: Sitting at a neutral 49.78 RSI—neither overbought nor oversold, setting the stage for another potential rally.

> Photonics: Currently "stuck in the mud." Conflicting data on Co-Packaged Optics (CPO); Seeking Alpha suggests delays to 2029, while banks say on track, but a high-volume ramp before 2028 is unlikely due to TSMC COUPE yield struggles.

> Memory: Strong rebound. Demand and pricing remain highly bullish, further energized by the new SK Hynix ADR trading.

> Equipment (WFE): The structural winners. High demand is stretching lead times. Despite stretched valuations, their deep moats make their upcoming financial performance a likely positive shocker—to the point where ASML might actually use their pricing power to hike EUV prices.

Economic Calendar

> Tuesday (CPI & Fed Chair Warsh): Core CPI is expected at 2.9% (aided by lower gas prices bleeding into core). Keep a close eye on Fed Chair Warsh’s testimony to parse his views on AI's impact on inflation and the rollout of his new task force.

> Wednesday (PPI): Producer inflation is the ultimate leading indicator. If producers face higher input costs, they will pass them directly to consumers. A hot print here will be brutal for market sentiment.

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