Morgan Stanley: Memory & Inference
AI Infrastructure TAM: Training vs. Inference> Massive Market Growth: The total addressable market (TAM) for AI infrastructure is projected to reach nearly $1,000 billion ($1 trillion) by 2030.> The Rise of Inference: While "Training" historically dominated early AI infrastructure spend, "Inference" is expected to grow at a blistering 42% CAGR between 2025 and 2030.> The Pivot by 2030: By 2030, the market share is projected to flip, with Inference capturing the majority share at 56%, leaving Training at 44%.Unprecedented Contract and Spot Pricing Mismatches> DDR5 Pricing Surge: After a long flat period through late 2025, DDR5 prices experienced an unprecedented spike going into 2026. Spot prices surged past $45.00, while contract prices trailed tightly behind around $37.50.> SSD (NAND) Disconnection: For 512GB PCIe 4.0 SSDs, a massive gap opened up in 2026. Interestingly, the OEM Contract price spiked dramatically higher to $118, while the Channel Spot price leveled off and dropped lower to $84.> Inventory Normalization: Total supply-chain inventory weeks (across suppliers, PC OEMs, servers, and smartphones) peaked around mid-2024 to early-2025 and have steadily declined/normalized through 2026.Cyclical Nature of Memory ("Rinse & Repeat")> Predictable 4-Year Cycles: The historical data highlights clear, supply-driven memory cycles that repeat roughly every 4 years (e.g., peaks/troughs around 2010–2014, 2014–2018, 2018–2022).> An Anomalous 2026 Spike: The current cycle moving into 2026 shows an outlier, nearly vertical surge. The DRAM Contract Year-over-Year (YoY) growth has skyrocketed to a historic high of 820%, shattering all previous cyclical peaks from the last 15 years.$Micron Tech(MU.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $AMD(AMD.US) $Intel(INTC.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Cerebras(CBRS.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US)
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