Goldman Sachs: ABF Substrate
> Favorable S/D Conditions: The supply/demand outlook is expected to remain highly favorable for at least the next 18–24 months. Industry capacity is currently close to full utilization, but there are limited industry-wide capacity additions planned before the second half of 2027.> Expanding S/D Gap: Analysts expect the supply shortage ratio and the supply/demand gap for the ABF industry to continue expanding in the coming years.> Market Growth: The key AI IC substrate Total Addressable Market (TAM) is forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 66% from 2025 to 2028E.SEMCO --> > Capacity Deficit: SEMCO has stated that customer demand for its ABF substrates currently exceeds its capacity by more than 50%. Its ABF production capacity is expected to run at full utilization in 2H26.> Revenue and Margin Growth: Driven by strong volume and solid pricing growth, SEMCO’s ABF revenue is projected to grow 3.3x from W1.2tn in 2025 to W3.9tn in 2028E. During the same period, its operating profit margin (OPM) is expected to expand significantly from 9% to 35%.
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