
After $Broadcom(AVGO.US)'s earnings report, a full trading day has passed. Now, we're trying to analyze the current situation using options trading data. Just one trading day after the earnings, the overall implied volatility has almost returned to its pre-earnings initial value. The top-left chart shows that the current implied volatility has fallen to the upper edge of the pre-earnings benchmark. There will definitely be a wave of high and low fluctuations in volatility going forward. The key point we need to observe is whether the lowest point of the benchmark shows signs of gradually rising higher. If it does, that would be an early sign of the stock price preparing to reach new highs. The top-right chart shows the Put/Call volatility spread trend. I thought the shocking lesson of a single-day drop of over 12% after earnings could push the volatility spread back above the zero line in one day, but it didn't. In fact, it remains significantly below the zero line. In plain language: the single-day 12.59% drop didn't deliver a shocking lesson to market participants; they're still not scared enough! The bottom-right chart is a slightly more positive message. We see that the sharply falling stock price has already pushed the maximum pain point below some of the options. For the mid-June monthly options, it has now become possible for the maximum pain point price to catch up with the stock price. The maximum pain point for the 06/18 options is currently near $375. I believe this can be seen as the first support level where the stock price might potentially stop falling in the near term. The bottom-left chart is also not too optimistic. Even after yesterday's big drop, the correlation coefficient between stock returns and volatility remains at a strongly positive value. While not 100% accurate, this phenomenon usually appears around the peak of a stock price. Conclusion: $Broadcom(AVGO.US) currently shows no signs of stopping its decline; it hasn't fallen enough yet!
The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the stance of the platform. The content is intended for investment reference purposes only and shall not be considered as investment advice. Please contact us if you have any questions or suggestions regarding the content services provided by the platform.




