Gary Black Tracker
2026.04.13 08:52

Highlights from today’s pre-mkt summary for Subscribers: Equities fell globally as oil surged above $100/barrel after President Trump ordered a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the collapse of U.S.-Iran peace talks in Pakistan. 10-year Treasury yields edged up and gold, silver and bitcoin fell modestly. Investors now shift their focus to this week’s bank earnings. The limited equity pullback following the collapse in U.S.-Iran peace talks suggests cautious optimism remains that a resolution is possible. Longer-term, we expect equities to reclaim new highs once the conflict ends, oil prices ease, and slowing employment boosts prospects for faster Fed rate cuts. S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates have risen to $324 (+17% YoY), implying a forward P/E of 21.0x, equal to a 4.8% earnings yield and a +50bp premium to 10-year treasury yields, in line with historic spreads in non-recessionary periods. We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) due to declining long-term earnings estimates, competition in unsupervised autonomy from players like Google, Baidu, and Nvidia, and potential selling pressure from an upcoming SpaceX IPO.

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