amit
2026.03.13 17:27

Markets are in such a weird space currently right now.

Every single day there are two types of headlines: one that implies the war will end soon and oil prices should go down and then one that implies the exact opposite.

CPI was okay this week but if oil, which is now at $96, continues to stay here…inflation just isn’t going to get better.

Which means we aren’t going to easily get rate cuts. We now only have 1 cut projected for 2026.

The S&P is officially down 3% YTD and this week has lost that crucial $6700 level.

Individual sectors like Fintech and SaaS have just been completely left as narratives have ruined those names, whether it’s about AI or private credit.

However, individual growth stocks have meaningfully corrected from the highs. Some down 50%. Mag 7 multiples ex Tesla/Apple continue to be reasonable and every time they breakout…some headline brings them down, which is what we saw with $Meta Platforms(META.US).

I think this year so far has been characterized in 3 ways:

1. Finding a deeply important sector/theme and going heavy into that like drones/space/energy/etc, but timing is important as even those sectors have seen big pullbacks.

2. Accepting this year is consolidation (which is better than bearish) and just buying your favorite names at discounts every week to add to the portfolio.

3. Yielding volatility by running covered calls and playing ranges within stocks as many continue to be within a range which helps when running calls, something that has been one of my core strategies this year and is also what I thought might happen as we are in year 4 of the bull market and these names might just need to consolidate.

Going net short has not really worked unless you picked the right stocks, S&P down 3% isn’t really the best environment for shorting since everyone is so positioned for the crash that the premiums on puts/borrowing fees aren’t as attractive when everyone expects a major move down.

A hard market to navigate but still opportunity exists within it…

Source: amit

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