$Oracle(ORCL.US) Trimmed a few shares last week on the bounce, now holding 255 shares at ~$175 cost basis. Keeping them through earnings. Here's my thinking:
At $150, this is oversold. Even without the OpenAI deal, Oracle's core database + software biz alone supports this price. At these levels? Why dodge earnings.
The debt story: This is strategic, not distress. Oracle placed a huge bet on AI. Divergent views = opportunity. If everyone agreed, price would already be higher. Question is whether mkts price in potential before results.
TikTok angle: Beyond cash flow and cloud growth, it strengthens Oracle's political hand. Plus Ellison's personal ties with Trump? That's optionality the market isn't pricing.
What I'm watching tomorrow:
- FCF trend (negative narrowing?)RPO conversionCapex efficiency
Hit one of these = valuation reset. $180 short term? Doable.
⚠️ Risk: Capex guides up again or FCF deteriorates = more downside. Worst case? Maybe revisit $130. Didn't sell last time, won't lose sleep if it happens again.
Bottom line: Optimistic heading into print. Not reality — just my read.
Not advice. Just my view.
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