$Mapletree Ind Trust(ME8U.SG)

The TikTok crowd is still selling Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX: ME8U) as Singapore’s gateway to the global data‑centre gold rush — and the narrative isn’t wrong, it’s just incomplete. What they won’t show you is this: for the nine months ending December 2025, MIT’s Net Property Income dropped 4.9% to S$380.4 million, distributable income fell 5.7% to S$274.8 million, and DPU slipped to 9.62 cents from 10.21 cents a year ago — a 5.8% income compression that quietly bites into a retiree’s monthly kopitiam allowance. The culprits are income lost from three Singapore properties divested in August 2025, North American lease non‑renewals, and a weaker USD which shaves a few cents off every overseas dollar before it hits your brokerage account.

MIT’s Interest Coverage Ratio sits at 3.9x, with leverage at 37.2% — not alarming by itself, but context matters. Fully 15% of debt matures this quarter and another 17% in FY2026/27, while average cost of debt has inched up to 3.0% as swaps reset. Think of this like a HDB mortgage coming off a below‑market fixed rate: instalments rise, and the “coffee money” yield is squeezed structurally, not temporarily. MIT’s CEO has flagged that “near‑term transitional effects” will persist until the end of the next financial year, so any DPU recovery is a 2027 thesis at the earliest. At a current DPU run‑rate of about 12.8 cents and a share price around S$2.00–S$2.10, forward yield is roughly 6.0%–6.4% — a 200–240 basis‑point spread above the CPF SA’s 4.0% risk‑free floor, but only if you accept FX drag, a coming refinancing wall, and data‑centre occupancy risk. MIT is not a broken REIT — its AA‑ rating, 92.9% fixed‑rate borrowings, and sponsor backing are real supports — but the Margin of Safety here is thinner than the yield spread implies.