This week's U.S. stock market can be summed up in one sentence—"Earnings + Fed, a double stress test."

This week, U.S. stocks officially enter the core phase of earnings season.

Tech giants like Microsoft, Apple, Meta, and Tesla are set to report their results, and their performance will largely determine the short-term direction of the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and even the entire risk asset market.

First, focus on tech giants: AI is the theme, but profits are the key.

The market isn’t concerned about "whether there’s AI"—it’s about:

👉 Can AI actually drive revenue growth?

👉 Are capital expenditures starting to spiral out of control?

For companies like Microsoft and Meta, the focus is on cloud growth and AI commercialization progress.

For Apple, the market is watching whether iPhone sales and service revenue can stabilize.

For Tesla, it’s more about margins, autonomous driving, and whether the future narrative can still justify its valuation.

Second, the macro backdrop: The Fed is the "invisible referee."

This week also brings an unavoidable variable—the Fed’s rate decision.

While the market widely expects no change in rates, the wording will be what truly moves markets.

If the Fed leans hawkish:

➡️ Tech valuations will come under pressure, and even strong earnings may be discounted.

If it leans dovish:

➡️ A "decent" earnings report could be magnified by the market.

That’s why this week, many stock swings won’t be due to earnings alone but rather the combined effect of earnings + macro sentiment.

Third, structural shifts: Divergence will be stark.

This earnings season has one defining feature:

👉 Not all stocks will rise or fall together.

Companies that prove "growth + profitability + cost control" will be rewarded.

Those just hyping AI without delivering profits will be swiftly abandoned.

Defensive sectors and cash-flow-stable firms may become safe havens.

Finally, a summary.

This week in U.S. stocks isn’t about watching the show—it’s about setting the direction:

Earnings validate real corporate profitability.

The Fed determines the valuation ceiling.

Market sentiment dictates short-term volatility.

One takeaway:

This isn’t a confirmation week for a full-blown bull market—it’s a week of survival of the fittest.

Companies that can truly weather cycles will be singled out by the market this earnings season.