1 / 21 The US stock market's trend of rising and then falling back, is it a "rebound" or an "escape wave"?

Today's trend is a very typical "tug-of-war between bulls and bears", with enthusiasm at the opening and calmness in the afternoon. Although there was a strong recovery in the morning session, there was a pullback after touching key levels. This trend indicates that while the funds have ruled out the most extreme scenarios, they are still unwilling to immediately eliminate the risk premium.

The sharp rise in the morning session was due to Trump explicitly ruling out the option of using force to acquire Greenland in his Davos speech, which was seen by the market as a cooling signal. The afternoon pullback was due to the European Parliament suspending the progress of the trade agreement with the US and planning to hold an emergency summit, with the confrontation situation leading to a renewed rise in risk premiums. Gold prices continue to strengthen, and although the yield on 10-year US Treasuries has eased slightly, it is far from reaching a level that would reassure the stock market to pull valuations.

SPY faces heavy selling pressure near 685, which is the first retracement resistance level after breaking through. The first support exists near 676, and the second defensive line is at 670-672. Once it falls below 670, it will turn into a trend decline.

QQQ's key resistance zone is at 616-618, with the intraday low of 605 being the recent defensive level. The more critical psychological barrier is at 600, and falling below 600 would mean the tech stock recovery has failed.

-Enter SOXL near 57 and use intraday volatility for profit-taking and swing trading.

-Despite NFLX's good earnings report, the suspension of the buyback plan due to acquisitions has raised concerns about cash flow. The current technical performance is poor, and entry is not recommended.

-The mindset of positioning COST near the low of 870 is very important, while the current high of 980 is suitable for gradually reducing positions rather than chasing the rally.

-Meta's performance is weak, mainly due to severe earnings gaps. It is still in a bearish arrangement, and the cost-performance ratio is not high.

Today's K-line has left a long upper shadow, indicating that the selling pressure above is real. Focus on the support levels of SPY 676 and QQQ 605. If they cannot hold, the adjustment will continue.

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