amit
2025.11.24 20:15

THERE IT IS

Last Friday, Fed President John Williams said he would support a rate cut and the market odds went from 30% to 75% because Williams is seen as a proxy for Powell

aka, not all Fed Presidents are created equal, the NYC one matters a bit more to the markets

well, Mary Daly just came out and says she supports a rate cut as well, the San Francisco Fed President also matters a bit more to the markets

rate cut odds just jumped to 80.9%, the highest in weeks, and potentially why the market may have a better chance to hold on to it's gains

seems like this end of year run is contingent on a rate cut and the market is much more optimistic about getting one today than it was last week

now, if we get a cut, it means the labor market is weakening which is not necessarily good for the economy, but if we cut early...we may have a chance to stop the labor market from completely deteriorating which is very important for the economy

Source: amit

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