amit
2025.11.17 16:59

more and more choppiness to start the week

feels the market is dealing with these issues:

- japan is getting ready to print $110B of stimulus, could be good for certain parts of the yen carry trade and bad for other parts, but more central banks deciding they need to stimulate

- fed rate cut probabilities for december officially below 50%, without the labor market data showing that we need a rate cut, hard for the market to believe that the fed will cut

- Nvidia earnings this week is expected to crush, but is $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) crushing enough to deal with a bad macro landscape of no cuts and increased layoffs

- $Amazon(AMZN.US) issued $12B of debt today which is pennies for them but once again shows that companies are tapping the credit markets for liquidity and that is probably annoying the markets

- crypto dumping not helping the risk on arguments

i think we need a strong $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) quarter followed by a weak labor market report that is not SO bad that it causes people to run for the hills, but bad enough that it shows the Fed they'd be a bit crazy to not cut rates

that is how I think we could end the year in a more positive way, but until that data we are likely continuing to see more chop

nice to see $Tesla(TSLA.US) +4% today though haha, some pockets of the market not caring about the macro like $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) up 4% on the berkshire buy or $Micron Tech(MU.US) which continues to be strong due to memory demand growing

big week for Nvidia & labor market data to decide the trajectory on where 2025 goes as we head into the end of the year

Source: amit

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