Gary Black Tracker
2025.07.30 14:07

$Starbucks(SBUX.US) (-2.0%, no position) still seems more hype than substance. Many bulls are discounting a quick turnaround by CEO Brian Niccol (former CEO of $Chipotle Mexican Grill(CMG.US), where he worked miracles). 3Q SSS was a disappointing -2.0% vs -1.5% expected. North America SSS were -2.0% vs -2.5% expected. Adj EPS was $.50 vs $.64 expected. China was the bright spot with SSS +2.0% vs +1.4% expected. Rev of $9,436M was ahead of $9,293M est.

Niccol claims the company’s turnaround efforts are “ahead of schedule” and he vowed to unleash a wave of innovation in 2026, including protein infused cold foam added to drinks.

At 32x FY’26 ests of $2.82 SBUX seems rich to us unless SSS comps turn positive. SBUX shares reached $97 pre-mkt on hopes that the Niccol turnaround is happening. We’re not so sure.

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