
To investors I spoke with, the biggest negative (and as I’ve warned for months) is that the new affordable vehicle will be nothing more than a stripped down Model Y at a lower price point. Absent a new form factor (e.g., hatchback, smaller pickup truck) a lower priced trim within the Model Y family will earn TSLA no incremental volume, as any volume earned by cutting costs and price will simply cannibalize higher priced trims. This is marketing 101, but I’m not sure anyone in senior mgmt gets this. Part of TSLA’s -4% haircut after hours is the realization that FY’25 Adj EPS estimates — despite their -42% YTD reduction — are still likely 10-15% too high, and will likely be reduced further in the coming days, adding pressure to $Tesla(TSLA.US) stock.
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