TSLA Q1 2025 EPS Forecast

TSLA Q1 2025 EPS Forecast:

Tesla's earnings call is scheduled for April 22nd, 2025. I'm expecting the following:

Revenue: 21.16B vs. Consensus of 21.54B
EPS Non-GAAP: $0.39 vs. Consensus of $0.44
Auto GM ex. reg credits: 12.24%

Background：

Tesla Q1 sales drop to lowest level since 2022 amid growing anti-Musk backlash. In Q1 2025, the company sold 336,681 vehicles, a 13% decline YoY and the lowest quarterly total since Q2 2022. That figure also came in well below analyst expectations for over 390,000 units sold

My forecast implies the following:

QoQ Revenue Growth: -17.69%
YoY Revenue Growth: -0.67%
QoQ EPS Growth: -46.58%
YoY EPS Growth: -13.33%

Energy and Storage: I'm expecting record revenue from the energy business based off the Shanghai Megapack factory ramping up and the 10 Gwh deployed during Q1. I do suspect that energy margins will shrink over time however imo its the best part of the business at the moment.
Energy Revenue Forecast: 3.4B

Regulatory Credit Sales: I am expecting around $500M in regulatory credits. It might be under the average we have seen recently so its a conservative estimate. EV adoption growth has seemed to go well in Q1 globally based off delivery prints from other automotive companies however I do not expect regulatory credits to go away any time soon under the Trump administration

FSD revenue recognition should be in line with Q4 as no major features we released in Q1 that were not in Q4 2024.

Services and other: I'm expecting 2.9B in revenue as the trend line has continued slowly growing over the past few years and I'm expecting a continuation in this quarter.

Automotive GM (excluding regulatory credits): I'm forecasting 12.24% GM this quarter. I believe Tesla has reduced COGS but mainly due to the delivery mix. Model Y seems to be ramping better in China (as always) and as such margins will shrink

Final Numbers for transparency:

Automotive Revenue: 14.88B
Total Revenue: 21.16B
Total Cost of Revenue: 12.62B
Gross Profit: 3.77B
Operating Expenses: 2.65B
Income from Operations: 1.1B
Net Income: 1.03B
EPS Non-GAAP: $0.39
Auto GM (excluding regulatory credits): 12.24%

$Tesla(TSLA.US)