下周前瞻 | 华尔街大行财报季开启！美国 9 月 CPI、PPI，多名美联储官员讲话

Key Financial Events from October 9th to October 13th

There are many highlights this week, mainly focusing on China's financial data for September, including inflation data and import/export data, as well as the US CPI and PPI for September.

In addition, with the significant volatility in international oil prices, the monthly market reports from OPEC+ and IEA, as well as the Energy Outlook Report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), will be the focus of investors' attention. The latest geopolitical turmoil may provide momentum for oil prices to rebound. On October 7th, the situation between Israel and Palestine escalated again, and currently, the Israeli Defense Forces have declared a state of war.

The US Congress may welcome a new Speaker of the House of Representatives next week, as the Republicans have decided to hold a meeting on October 10th to listen to the candidates' speeches and conduct a voting election on the 11th. The Q3 earnings season for US stocks will also kick off next week. The International Monetary Fund (IMF)/World Bank Annual Meetings will be held, updating the global economic outlook report.

China's Inflation Data, Financial and Trade Data Released One After Another

On Friday, October 13th, China's CPI and PPI data for September will be announced. Analysts generally believe that energy prices will have a certain boosting effect on September's CPI, while vegetable prices remain a drag. Thanks to the lagged transmission effect of the rebound in upstream commodity prices in July and August, the MoM growth of PPI in September is expected to remain positive.

Earlier released data showed that CPI in August rose by 0.1% YoY, compared to a 0.3% YoY decrease in July; and rose by 0.3% MoM, compared to a 0.2% MoM increase in July.

PPI in August decreased by 3.0% YoY, lower than the 4.4% decrease in July, and rose by 0.2% MoM, compared to a 0.2% decrease in the previous month.

Zhang Jingjing from China Merchants Securities predicts that CPI in September will rise by 0.3% MoM and 0.2% YoY. September's CPI is the same as August's, with food being the drag and non-food being the contributor.

With the approaching Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, the demand for travel is expected to drive a seasonal increase in service prices, and the drag from core commodity prices after the MoM rebound of PPI is also expected to ease. It is estimated that non-food CPI in September will increase by 0.7-0.8% YoY.

Looking at import/export data, earlier data showed that China's total import/export volume in August was $501.38 billion, a YoY decrease of 8.2% when denominated in US dollars. Among them, exports were $284.87 billion, a YoY decrease of 8.8%; imports were $216.51 billion, a YoY decrease of 7.3%.

Zhang Jingjing from China Merchants Securities predicts that exports in September will decrease by 4.5% YoY, and imports will decrease by 4.0% YoY, with the decline narrowing further. From forward-looking indicators, the overall manufacturing PMI in the US and Europe shows signs of stabilization, and South Korea's export YoY has already turned significantly positive by the 20th of the month, indicating a recovery in global demand. The decline in export growth rate in September will further narrow due to the low base effect from last year.

At the same time, recent trends in the import of bulk commodities such as iron ore, crude oil, and coal show signs of marginal improvement in domestic demand, leading to a continued narrowing of the decline in import growth.

From financial data, analysts generally expect that financial institutions will add RMB 2.5 trillion in new loans in September. China Merchants Securities predicts that social financing will increase by about RMB 3.5 trillion in September, with a growth rate of around 9.2%.

Among them, the net financing of government bonds in the month is about RMB 950 billion, far exceeding the same period last year (about RMB 500 billion), reflecting fiscal efforts; the scale of direct financing by enterprises has been reduced, with net financing of corporate bonds at about -RMB 130 billion (about -RMB 80 billion in the same period last year), and stock financing at about RMB 50 billion (about RMB 150 billion in the same period last year).

US CPI and PPI Data

After the unexpected slowdown in wage growth, the US CPI and PPI data to be released on Thursday, October 12th, once again became the focus of the market.

Currently, the market generally expects that the year-on-year CPI in September will slightly slow down from 3.7% in August to 3.6%, while the core CPI will slow down from 4.3% to 4.1%.

If the CPI data surprises, not only will there be significant fluctuations in US stocks and bonds, but Federal Reserve officials may also make more aggressive statements on monetary policy. According to the schedule, nearly 10 Federal Reserve officials will appear one after another next week:

Monday: 21:00 - 2023 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan will speak on the US economic outlook and monetary policy.

Tuesday: 00:50 - Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson will speak; 21:30 - 2024 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will speak on the US economic outlook.

Wednesday: 01:00 - Fed Governor Waller will speak on monetary policy; 03:00 - 2023 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will speak; 06:00 - 2024 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly will speak; 16:15 - Fed Governor Bowman will speak.

Thursday: 00:15 - 2024 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will speak; 02:00 - The Fed will release the minutes of the September monetary policy meeting; 04:30 - 2025 FOMC voting member and Boston Fed President Collins will speak.

Friday: 01:00 - 2024 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will deliver the opening speech at an event; 04:00 - 2025 FOMC voting member and Boston Fed President Collins will speak at a banking conference.

As for the PPI data, changes in upstream cost prices will directly affect the bargaining space for downstream products and services, and impact the demand in the labor market. The market expects that the month-on-month PPI in the US will accelerate from 0.4% in the previous month to 0.7%, while the core PPI will remain at 0.2%. The New York Fed and the University of Michigan Consumer Survey will be released, and attention should be paid to changes in short-term inflation expectations.

ECB releases minutes of September policy meeting

Although the latest inflation data is better than expected, there are still differences within the ECB.

ECB Vice President Guindos refuted comments about interest rate cuts last week, believing that it will be difficult to overcome the "last mile" to achieve inflation targets. ECB Chief Economist Lane believes that the ECB will not relax in its fight against inflation, stating that the inflation rate is still far above 2% and has not yet reached the inflation target, so there is still work to be done in reducing inflation.

ECB policymakers have been very active in making comments after the last interest rate decision, and dovish individuals seem to have recently called for a pause in rate hikes more candidly.

Therefore, even if the minutes maintain a tightening bias, investors may consider it outdated. However, ECB President Lagarde recently reiterated that future policy decisions "will ensure that interest rates remain sufficiently restrictive when necessary."

At the same time, ECB President Lagarde will engage in discussions with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva and WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala at the IMF Annual Meeting Forum, and attention should be paid to potential clues about inflation and policy paths.

How will oil prices fluctuate?

Oil prices plummeted last week, with a cumulative drop of nearly 9% for the week, the worst weekly performance in six months. As of Friday's close, WTI November crude oil futures rose by $0.48, or 0.58%, to $82.79 per barrel, with a cumulative decline of 8.81% for the week. Brent December crude oil futures rose by $0.51, or 0.60%, to $84.58 per barrel, with a cumulative decline of over 8.26% for the week.

According to media reports, Saudi Arabia has expressed its intention to increase oil production to the White House, stating that Saudi Arabia is willing to increase oil production to facilitate a "US-Saudi joint defense agreement." Saudi Arabia stated that oil production actions will depend on market conditions. If oil prices are high, Saudi Arabia is willing to take action in early 2024.

The report stated that this is part of efforts to reach a three-party agreement, and the Biden administration hopes to facilitate the restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel within the next six months. In exchange, the United States will provide security guarantees to Saudi Arabia and provide civilian nuclear technology assistance.

However, the latest geopolitical turmoil may provide momentum for oil prices to rebound. On October 7th local time, the situation between Israel and Palestine escalated again. The Israeli military began to launch attacks on targets of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) in the Gaza Strip in response to earlier rocket attacks on Israel. According to Israeli N12 news, at least 40 Israelis were killed in Hamas attacks and 740 were injured.

Other important data, meetings, and events

US Q3 earnings season kicks off Focus on Earnings Reports in the US Stock Market

The upcoming earnings season in the US stock market is drawing attention from Wall Street. Major players such as JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and BlackRock will be releasing their quarterly earnings reports, along with PepsiCo.

Given the surge in delinquency rates and depleted excess savings, many expect their financial data to highlight consumer weakness. Prior to this, the performance of PepsiCo and Domino's Pizza is also worth noting, as both companies have experienced varying degrees of decline in their stock prices. Some analysts believe that food stocks are being impacted by the increasing popularity of weight loss drugs.

The 109th National Sugar and Liquor Expo to be Held

The 109th National Sugar and Liquor Expo will be held from October 12th to 14th at the Shenzhen International Convention and Exhibition Center.

The National Sugar and Liquor Expo, which began in 1955 and has a history of 68 years, is held twice a year in spring and autumn. It is a long-standing, large-scale, and influential exhibition in the Chinese food and liquor industry, known as the "barometer" of the food industry. The overall exhibition area of this year's expo is planned to be 210,000 square meters, once again breaking the record for the scale of the autumn expo.

The 3rd China-ASEAN Standardization Cooperation Forum to be Held

The 3rd China-ASEAN Standardization Cooperation Forum will be held on October 12th in Liuzhou, Guangxi. The theme of the forum is "Institutional Opening: Standard Connectivity along the Belt and Road, Mutual Benefit and Win-Win in Industrial Development". Chinese and foreign experts and scholars will give keynote speeches on topics such as clean energy, high-end green equipment manufacturing, and new energy vehicles.

New Round of Price Adjustments for Domestic Refined Oil

The first oil price adjustment of October will take place at 24:00 on October 10th. Influenced by the recent continuous decline in international oil prices, the domestic oil price in China has changed from an increase of 80 yuan/ton to a decrease of 40 yuan/ton. However, it has not yet fallen below the threshold for price reduction (the domestic oil price must increase or decrease by 50 yuan/ton to initiate a price adjustment), and is currently in a temporary stagnation range. It is widely expected that the domestic oil price will see a decrease this time.

Implementation of the "Interim Measures for Administrative Penalties on Extracurricular Training"

According to the official website of the Ministry of Education, the "Interim Measures for Administrative Penalties on Extracurricular Training" will be implemented from October 15th. The "Measures" clearly define the circumstances of unauthorized paid subject-specific hidden variant training. For the behavior of in-service primary and secondary school teachers engaging in unauthorized paid subject-specific training, heavier penalties will be imposed in accordance with the law.

US House of Representatives to Elect a New Speaker

The US House of Representatives is expected to vote for a new speaker on October 11th, replacing the ousted Kevin McCarthy. On October 3rd, the US House of Representatives voted in favor of a resolution to remove Republican Speaker McCarthy, making him the first sitting Speaker of the House to be voted out in US history. Republican Representative Patrick McHenry has taken over as the interim speaker.

1.62 trillion yuan of Reverse Repos Mature The People's Bank of China will have a total of 1.62 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase agreements maturing next week, with 319 billion yuan, 378 billion yuan, 417 billion yuan, and 508 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Thursday respectively.

HKEX Launches Synapse, a Trading and Settlement Acceleration Platform for Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect

HKEX will officially launch the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect trading and settlement acceleration platform, Synapse, on October 9th. This platform utilizes DAML smart contract technology to standardize post-trade workflows, improving operational efficiency, transparency, and reducing settlement risks.

IPO Opportunities

There will be three A-share IPOs available for online subscription from October 9th to October 13th.

Among them, Zhejiang Guoxiang will be issued on October 9th. The company is a supplier of artificial environmental systems solutions for precision industries, new energy, new materials, cutting-edge medical, subway, nuclear power, and other high-precision fields and indoor environments of public buildings.

Tianyuan Intelligent and Siquan New Materials will be issued on October 12th. Tianyuan Intelligent specializes in the research and development, design, production, and sales of automation equipment and mechanical equipment supporting products. Siquan New Materials is a diversified functional materials provider with thermal management materials as its core, dedicated to improving the stability and reliability of electronic and electrical products.

A total of 46 new funds (combined statistics for Class A and Class C) will be issued, including 12 bond funds, 12 hybrid funds, 4 equity funds, 12 index funds, 3 FOFs, 2 ODII funds, and 1 REIT.