The Nasdaq rose more than 1%, with Tesla up about 6%. US bond yields hit a 16-year high, while oil prices fell sharply by 5.6%.

US September ADP "mini non-farm" private sector employment added 89,000, far below expectations and previous figures, marking the smallest increase since the beginning of 2021. This indicates a further slowdown in the labor market and has also dampened investors' bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again this year.

The US September ISM Services Index was 53.6, in line with expectations of 53.5, slightly lower than the previous figure of 54.5. The new order index hit a new low since 2023. After the data was released, US bond yields hit bottom and rebounded, causing the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index to turn down in early trading.

The final value of the US September Markit Services PMI fell to an eight-month low of 50.1, barely expanding for eight consecutive months. The composite PMI rose slightly to 50.2, but the new order index fell to the lowest level since January. The improvement in August factory orders was offset by a cooling of durable goods orders on a month-on-month basis.

The market is focused on the US non-farm employment data for September, with an expected addition of 170,000 jobs, lower than the previous figure of 187,000. Investors believe that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again this year is only 32%, down from 40% yesterday due to the unexpected growth in JOLTS job vacancies.

Investors' bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again this year have cooled.

In the eurozone, the month-on-month Producer Price Index (PPI) rose for the first time this year, while the year-on-year decline was in double digits. The final value of the composite PMI in the eurozone for September was higher than expected, and the German services PMI returned above the boom-bust line. The UK services PMI for September fell to an eight-month low in the contraction zone, but better than the initial value.

On Tuesday evening, the US House of Representatives voted to remove Speaker McCarthy, creating a record in US history and increasing the possibility of a temporary government shutdown in the fourth quarter. Fitch Ratings said that the US government may stop operating later this year, but it will not affect sovereign ratings.

US stocks closed at a daily high, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and small-cap stocks still down for the year but ending a three-day losing streak, while Tesla rose 6% and led the new energy vehicle sector.

On Wednesday, October 4th, US bond yields fell from their decade-high levels, leading to a slight increase in US stocks. Subsequently, US bond yields rebounded, and within the first 40 minutes of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index turned down one after another, with small-cap stocks leading the decline, maintaining the downward trend for the year along with the Dow Jones. The energy sector performed the worst as oil prices fell, while the non-essential consumer goods sector led the market with a boost from Tesla's 2.6% rise.

US stocks rebounded before noon, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 both rising more than 1%, and Tesla leading with a gain of over 4%. The S&P energy sector's decline deepened to 3%, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average and small-cap stocks briefly turned down. At the end of the day, US stocks extended their gains and collectively closed near the daily high, with the Dow Jones rising nearly 130 points and returning above 33,000 points, while the Russell small-cap stocks erased a 1% decline. However, the Dow Jones and small-cap stocks are still down for the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) ended its three-day losing streak and rebounded from a four-month low since May 31. The S&P 500 also rebounded from its lowest level since June 1, while the Nasdaq Composite rose from its lowest level since May 31. The Russell 2000 small-cap index also rebounded from its lowest level in five months since May 4.

The S&P 500 index closed up 34.30 points, or 0.81%, at 4,263.75. The DJIA closed up 127.17 points, or 0.39%, at 33,129.55. The Nasdaq Composite closed up 176.54 points, or 1.35%, at 13,236.01. The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.5%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index rose 0.11%.

The Nasdaq led the gains, rising more than 1% throughout the day, while the DJIA and small-cap stocks remained down for the year but ended their three-day losing streak.

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan both warned that with such a sharp rise in US interest rates, the financial markets could be in trouble. Barclays also believes that the stock market's difficulties may continue in the short term, as rising real interest rates and a stronger US dollar are unfavorable for risk assets. The market is also starting to focus on fiscal risks, which means that upward pressure on sovereign bond yields may persist.

Tech stocks rose across the board. "Metaverse" company Meta rose 1.5%, Microsoft rose 1.8%, Google Class A rose more than 2%, all reaching a two-week high; Amazon rose 1.8% to break free from its lowest level in three and a half months, Tesla rose about 6%, reaching a two-week high for the fourth day in five; however, Apple fell 0.8% before rebounding 0.7%, Netflix rose slightly, still not far from its lowest level in over four months.

Chip stocks rose across the board. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.4% and returned to above 3,400 points. Intel opened higher by more than 2% but briefly turned lower, closing up 0.7% at a two-week high; AMD rose 4%, Nvidia rose more than 1%, both hovering at a two-and-a-half-week high, Arm rose 3.7%, further distancing itself from its all-time low.

AI concept stocks rebounded. C3.ai fell more than 2% before rebounding 0.6%, still hovering near its lowest level in over four months. SoundHound.ai rose 3.7%, Palantir Technologies rose 5.6% to approach a one-month high, BigBear.ai rose 5.5%, breaking free from its lowest level in nearly nine months.

In terms of news, brokerage firm KeyBanc downgraded Apple's rating to hold, citing overvaluation and weak sales prospects in the United States. Apple CEO Tim Cook sold $41 million worth of stock, the largest amount in over two years. Google released the Pixel 8 series of smartphones, using AI technology in camera and other components, and based on the self-developed Tensor G3 chip. Intel plans to operate its programmable chip business as a separate entity and plans to conduct an initial public offering within three years. Hot Chinese concept stocks narrowed their losses in the late trading session. ETFs KWEB and CQQQ fell by about 1%, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) fell 1% and then closed down 0.3%, marking a three-day consecutive decline to a three-month low.

Among the Nasdaq 100 constituents, JD.com fell 0.3%, Baidu fell 1%, and Pinduoduo reversed its decline and rose 0.3%. Among other individual stocks, Alibaba fell 0.5%, Bilibili fell 1.4%, Tencent ADR fell 0.2%, but Chinese new energy vehicle stocks rose across the board, with NIO up 2.6%, Li Auto up 1.5%, and XPeng up 3%, breaking away from the three-month low.

Banking stocks turned higher in the late trading session. The industry benchmark Philadelphia Stock Exchange KBW Bank Index (BKX) fell nearly 1% and then reversed to a 0.5% gain, ending a two-day consecutive decline and breaking away from a four-and-a-half-month low. On May 4th, it hit the lowest level since October 2020. The KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX) fell 1% and then rose 0.9%, breaking away from a three-and-a-half-month low. On May 11th, it hit the lowest level since November 2020. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) also rose by about 1%, hitting the lowest level since October 2020 on May 4th.

Biotech stocks saw significant changes. Eli Lilly fell 2% before the market opened, but rose more than 2% after the opening, as the president of the company's diabetes and obesity division is set to retire at the end of the year. Moderna fell 3.6% and then rose more than 1% as the mid-term results of its experimental mRNA vaccine for influenza and COVID-19 were positive. Swiss pharmaceutical company Novartis' US stocks fell more than 4% at one point, and its subsidiary Sandoz's first day of trading in Switzerland saw a 17% decline. The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF XBI hit its lowest level in over a year since June last year during the trading session.

In addition, "Vietnam's version of Tesla" VinFast Auto fell nearly 14%, approaching the $8 integer mark, setting a new closing low since its listing through a shell company in the US on August 15th, and also hitting a historical low of less than $8 at one point.

Except for the German stock market, European stocks generally fell. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index fell 0.14%, hitting a new low for over half a year for the third consecutive day, but the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 0.1%, breaking away from its low since March, with energy stocks falling more than 2% and technology stocks rising more than 1%. The German stock index briefly fell below the 15,000-point mark for the first time in half a year, and the French stock index closed below 7,000 points for the first time in over half a year.

2-year US Treasury yield drops 11 basis points, long-term bond yield hits 16-year high and then falls 8 basis points

US Treasury yields return to daily lows after the midday session of US stocks. The 2-year yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, fell nearly 11 basis points to 5.04%, returning to a two-week low but still not far from its highest level since 2006.

The 10-year benchmark bond yield rose to 4.886% in the Asia-Pacific session, hitting its highest level since July 2007. However, it fell nearly 8 basis points to 4.72% during the US stock market session. The 30-year long-term bond yield briefly rose above 5%, marking the first time since the early stages of the global financial crisis in August 2007. It then fell 8 basis points to less than 4.86%.

The short-term US Treasury yield has the largest decline, with the 2-year yield experiencing the deepest decline in two months.

"Bond King" Bill Gross believes that the 10-year US Treasury yield may further rise to 5% in the short term. He stated, "Due to expectations of government bond supply and the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates for a longer period of time, bond prices are currently definitely oversold." "New Bond King" and DoubleLine Capital CEO Gundlach stated that the narrowing of the yield curve inversion indicates a "warning of an economic recession."

The US Treasury yield curve is steepening in a "bearish market," warning of an impending economic recession.

Due to cooling inflation in the eurozone, several European Central Bank policymakers have hinted that the interest rate hike cycle may have already ended, stabilizing eurozone bond yields.

The 10-year benchmark German bond yield rose to a twelve-year high before slightly falling in the late session, trading at 2.94%. The 10-year Italian bond yield, which has a higher debt burden compared to peripheral countries, also fell more than 2 basis points after hitting an eleven-year high, trading at 4.90%.

The 30-year German bond yield reached its highest level since August 2011, while the 30-year Italian bond yield rose to a ten-year high. Analysts point out that the significant increase in long-term bond yields in Europe and the US indicates that traders expect economic resilience to keep interest rates high for a longer period of time.

Oil prices plummet $5 or 5.6%, hitting a five-week low and the largest drop in over a year, US gasoline falls 6% to a five-month low

Concerns about the negative impact of higher interest rates on the macroeconomy and oil demand lead to a sharp drop in oil prices. WTI November futures fell $5.01, or 5.61%, to $84.22 per barrel, marking the largest single-day drop since September last year. Brent December futures fell $5.11, or 5.62%, to $85.81 per barrel. Both oil prices fell below the key technical level of the 50-day moving average, indicating a bearish signal. WTI crude oil fell the most by $5 or 5.7%, hitting a daily low of $84, the lowest in nearly five weeks since September 1st; Brent crude also fell the most by over $5 or 5.7%, briefly dropping below $86, the lowest since August 31st, all falling for four consecutive days in the past five days.

Oil prices fell by $5 or 5.6%, reaching the lowest in five weeks and the largest decline in over a year, breaking below the 50-day moving average.

Last week, US EIA gasoline inventories unexpectedly dropped by over 2.2 million barrels, reaching the lowest level since December last year; however, gasoline inventories surged by nearly 6.5 million barrels, and the four-week average gasoline demand hit a seasonal low since 1998; the inventories at the delivery point of US oil futures, Cushing, rose for the first time in eight weeks but remained close to the operational minimum.

Recent gasoline price increases have severely hindered demand.

OPEC+ maintained its decision on production for the year, with Saudi Arabia and Russia extending their voluntary production cuts and export restrictions until the end of the year as planned. Russia reiterated that it may adjust the decision if necessary and will review its plan to voluntarily cut production by 500,000 barrels per day in November.

The European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas rose by over 3%, still below the integer level of 40 euros per megawatt-hour, but ended a six-day consecutive decline and moved away from a four-month low. ICE UK natural gas rose by over 2%. US natural gas rose by 3.6%, briefly surpassing $3 to the highest level in eight and a half months, but US gasoline futures fell by 6% to the lowest level in five months.

The US dollar fell below 107, ending its ten-and-a-half-month high, the pound rose by 100 points, and the offshore renminbi also rose by over 100 points, briefly surpassing 7.31 yuan.

The DXY, a basket of major currencies against the US dollar, fell the most by 0.5% and dropped below the 107 level, ending its ten-and-a-half-month high since November last year. It had risen for 11 consecutive weeks, benefiting from the prospect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again this year and the relative resilience of the US economy.

The US dollar fell below 107, ending its ten-and-a-half-month high.

Non-US currencies rose across the board. The euro against the US dollar rose the most by 0.6% and briefly surpassed the 1.05 level, breaking away from a ten-month low. The pound against the US dollar rose by over 100 points or 0.8%, returning above the 1.21 level, ending a three-day consecutive decline and moving away from a nearly seven-month low.

The yen against the US dollar traded around the 149 level. According to calculations based on estimates from the Bank of Japan and currency brokerage firms, it is believed that the Japanese government did not buy yen to boost the exchange rate yesterday. On Tuesday, the yen fell below the 150 level, hitting a one-year low, and then quickly rebounded. Offshore RMB briefly rose above 7.31 yuan, up 110 points from the previous day's closing, while trading in the US stock market hovered around a three-week low at 7.32 yuan.

Mainstream cryptocurrencies experienced mixed movements, with most of the larger digital currencies seeing gains in market value. The largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, rose 0.6% to $27,500, approaching a six-week high, while the second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, fell nearly 1% and dropped below the $1,640 mark.

Bitcoin slightly rose, approaching a six-week high.

Gold futures closed at a ten-month low, spot gold fell for eight consecutive days, and silver dropped by 2% at one point. Palladium hit a five-year low, and London copper reached a nine-month low.

COMEX December gold futures fell 0.36% to $1,834.80 per ounce, marking a new ten-month low since late November last year, with a pullback of about 13% from the highest closing price in April this year. Silver futures fell more than 1%, hitting the lowest level in nearly seven months since early March.

Spot gold fell 0.3% and dropped below the $1,820 mark, falling for eight consecutive trading days, reaching a seven-month low since early March. Spot silver fell more than 2%, also hitting a seven-month low. Palladium, which is used as a catalyst in automobile exhaust systems, hit a five-year low.

Over the past two weeks, the price of gold has fallen by more than $100, as bets on long-term rising US interest rates have weakened the appeal of zero-yield assets. Many analysts believe that the price of gold may fall below the psychological level of $1,800 in the short term. UBS has lowered its gold price forecast for the end of this year by $100 to $1,850 and lowered its price forecast for June next year by $150 to $1,950.

Gold futures closed at a ten-month low, spot gold fell for eight consecutive days.

London industrial metals have experienced a general decline in the past three trading days, with increasing inventories and a stronger US dollar intensifying concerns about industrial metal demand:

The "Copper Doctor" fell more than 0.7% and dropped below the $8,000 mark, falling for four consecutive days to the lowest level in nine months. London aluminum fell nearly 2% and fell for three consecutive days, reaching a one-week low, while London zinc, which saw a slight decline, both further deviated from the five-month high. London lead hovered at a seven-week low, and London nickel hovered at a two-year low since October 2021. London tin rose slightly for two consecutive days, slightly deviating from the six-month low.