US stocks have rebounded from a four-month low, while the US dollar, US bond yields, and oil prices have cooled down. Offshore renminbi has risen above 7.30 yuan.

US Q2 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate was 2.1%, slightly lower than the expected 2.2%. The growth rate for the first quarter of each year from 2020 to 2022 has been revised downward. However, the number of initial jobless claims last week, which was lower than expected at 204,000, shows that the labor market still has resilience. The US existing home sales index for August dropped 7% month-on-month and nearly 19% year-on-year, as high interest rates weakened the momentum of the housing market.

Investors continue to focus on the possibility of a US government shutdown on October 1, the continuous rise of the US long-term bond yield to the highest level in more than a decade, and the release of the PCE personal consumption expenditure price index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator. Market expectations for another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year hover around 32% and are more likely to occur in December.

The latest news indicates that a government shutdown is imminent, and White House staff have been told to prepare for vacation.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell gave a speech, but did not discuss FOMC monetary policy or comment on the US economy. He stated that the public's understanding is key to the Fed's impact on the economy, highlighting the importance of economic educators.

Bundesbank President Weidmann made hawkish remarks again, stating that the European Central Bank may further raise interest rates if the data indicates it is necessary. Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone, saw its harmonized CPI for September rise by a preliminary 4.3% year-on-year, the smallest increase since September 2021, far below the previous value of 6.4%. However, the market's bet on the ECB raising interest rates by 25 basis points before the end of the year remains unchanged at around 25%.

Some analysts believe that the reversal of the base effect is the main driving force behind the significant cooling of inflation in Germany. Due to more statistical noise affecting data in Germany and many other European countries than usual, it is difficult for the ECB to soften its policy stance. However, four well-known economists have urged the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to pause interest rate hikes, and Bridgewater Associates predicts that the US will experience a debt crisis and substantial economic slowdown.

US stocks rise in the afternoon, rebounding from a four-month low, with chip stocks leading the way, European stocks rebound from a six-month low

On Thursday, September 28th, due to the US bond yields hitting a more than ten-year high before the US stock market opened, the three major US stock indexes all opened lower. However, they all turned higher after the recent inflation concerns triggered by the fall in oil prices.

At midday, as US bond yields fell, the gains in US stocks significantly expanded. The Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Russell small-cap stocks all rose by 1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 230 points or 0.7%. The S&P 500 briefly surpassed the 4,300 level. The S&P communication services sector led the gains in the market, with Meta and ticketing company Live Nation both rising by about 3%. AMD surged over 6%, leading the chip stocks.

At the close, the Dow Jones rose for the second day in eight trading days, moving away from its lowest level in nearly four months since June 1st. The S&P 500 rose for the second consecutive day since June 7th, and the Nasdaq and Russell small-cap stocks rose for the second consecutive day since May 31st. Small-cap stocks reached a one-week high. The S&P 500 index closed up 25.19 points, or 0.59%, at 4,299.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 116.07 points, or 0.35%, to 33,666.34. The Nasdaq Composite gained 108.43 points, or 0.83%, to 13,201.28. The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index rose 0.9%.

US stocks extended their gains in midday trading, with the Nasdaq and small-cap stocks leading the way.

Friday is the last trading day of the week, September, and the third quarter for US stocks, all of which have recorded cumulative declines during this period.

So far this week, the Dow has fallen nearly 1%, down more than 3% for the month and more than 2% for the quarter. The S&P 500 index fell 0.5% for the week, down 4.8% for the month, and more than 3% for the quarter. The Nasdaq fell slightly for the week, down nearly 6% for the month, and more than 4% for the quarter. Energy was the best-performing sector in the third quarter, with a cumulative increase of about 13%, while US WTI crude oil rose more than 30% during the same period, marking its best performance in six quarters.

Tech stocks had mixed performances. "Metaverse" company Meta rose 2%, Tesla rose 2.4%, and Google Class A shares rose 1.4%, all rebounding from their lowest levels in a month. Apple, after falling 1.6%, rebounded 0.2%, Microsoft rebounded 0.3%, and Netflix fell 0.3%, all hovering near their lowest levels in over four months. Amazon erased its 2.3% decline to flat, still maintaining a three-month low.

Chip stocks showed significant gains, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising 2.9% before closing up 1.8%, breaking through 3,400 points to a one-week high, further distancing itself from a four-month low. Intel rose 1.7%, AMD rose nearly 5% to a two-week high, further distancing itself from a four-and-a-half-month low, and Nvidia rose 1.5%. Arm rose nearly 5%, after hitting its lowest level since its listing last Friday, but Micron Technology fell more than 6% before closing down 4.4% to a one-month low.

AI concept stocks continued to rebound. C3.ai rose another 3%, further distancing itself from a four-and-a-half-month low. Palantir Technologies rose more than 6% for the second consecutive day from a three-month low to a one-month high. SoundHound.ai rose 5%, further distancing itself from a six-month low, but BigBear.ai, which rose nearly 15% yesterday, fell more than 3%, approaching its lowest level in nine months.

In terms of news, Nvidia's graphics card division and other departments were raided by the French antitrust authority, causing the stock price to temporarily give up its gains. Microsoft's chief technology officer praised AMD's AI performance. Meta continued to be boosted by the release of its new headset and the announcement of AI technology progress on Wednesday. Micron Technology reported a second-quarter operating loss of over $1.2 billion, but it was better than expected, and its guidance for the third quarter was not good. It was reported that SoftBank's Masayoshi Son invested $1 billion, and OpenAI and Ive teamed up to create the "iPhone of the AI era". JD.com denies rumors of selling Tesla cars.

Popular Chinese concept stocks narrow their decline in the closing session. ETF KWEB fell 1.6% before closing down 0.2%, CQQQ turned up 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) fell 0.8% before turning up 0.3%. It has risen for two consecutive days and further distanced itself from the two-and-a-half-month low set last week.

Among the Nasdaq 100 constituents, JD.com fell 1.4%, Baidu turned up 0.7%, and Pinduoduo turned up 0.6%. Among other individual stocks, Alibaba's decline significantly narrowed to 0.8%, Bilibili's decline significantly narrowed to 0.2%, Tencent ADR fell nearly 1%, and NIO, which denied "negotiating investment and technology sharing" with Mercedes-Benz, rose more than 5% to a week and a half high. Li Auto fell more than 1% to a three-month low, while XPeng rose more than 3%. Faraday Future, which fell 44% yesterday, fell more than 5% to a new low since its listing.

Bank stocks rose 1%, rising for the second day in ten days. The industry benchmark Philadelphia Stock Exchange KBW Bank Index (BKX) has moved away from a four-month low, having hit its lowest level since October 2020 on May 4. The KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX) has moved away from a three-month low, hitting its lowest level since November 2020 on May 11; the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) hit its lowest level since October 2020 on May 4. JPMorgan Chase, one of the "Big Four" banks in the United States, rose more than 1%, boosting the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Other stocks with significant changes include:

The United Auto Workers (UAW), which is on strike, has lowered its wage increase demand to 30%. The three major U.S. automakers have risen, with Stellantis up 2.5% off a two-week low, General Motors up 2.5% further away from a four-month low, and Ford up more than 1%.

Interactive fitness platform Peloton opened 12% higher, marking its largest gain in two months, and closed up more than 5% to a two-week high. It will develop digital fitness content for Lululemon, which will become Peloton's main sportswear provider. Lululemon fluctuated between gains and losses.

"Retail investor favorite" leading game company GameStop opened 5.5% higher but then fell 4%, ultimately closing down nearly 2% and approaching a one-month low. Activist investor Ryan Cohen was elected as the unpaid CEO, chairman, and president of the company's board of directors.

CarMax, the largest used car retailer in the United States, fell more than 13% to a nearly five-month low. The market's sharp depreciation has affected sales, and second-quarter profits have declined year-on-year. The number of vehicles purchased from consumers and dealers by the company decreased by 15% compared to the previous year.

European stocks rose across the board. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed up 0.36%, ending a five-day decline and moving away from a six-month low. It had fallen by about 3% over the previous five days, with the basic resources sector leading the market with a rise of over 2% and the banking sector rising 1%. The German stock index ended a three-day decline and also moved away from a six-month low. After reaching a multi-year high, the US long-term bond yields fell, while short-term bond yields experienced a significant decline. European bond yields saw a double-digit increase.

At the beginning of the US stock market, the yields of 5 to 30-year US bonds collectively rose to a cyclical high, while the yields of the two-year bonds, which are more sensitive to monetary policy, remained slightly lower. During the midday session, the yields of 2 to 10-year US bonds turned downward. At the same time, the US Treasury auctioned $37 billion of seven-year bonds, with a bid rate of 4.673%, reaching a new historical high. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.47, weaker than the previous ratio of 2.66.

The yield of the two-year US bond briefly reached 5.16% before falling, with the deepest decline of nearly 8 basis points to 5.06%, approaching a one-week low. Last week, it surpassed 5.20%, reaching the highest level since 2006. The yield of the seven-year bond fell after reaching a high not seen since the end of June 1993.

The yield of the 10-year benchmark bond briefly rose by 6 basis points to nearly 4.70%, reaching the highest level since October 15, 2007, and then fell by more than 4 basis points to 4.59%. The yield of the 30-year long-term bond rose by more than 7 basis points and exceeded 4.80%, reaching the highest level since 2010, and then briefly fell to 4.70%.

The European bond yields saw a significant increase. The yield of the 10-year German bond, the benchmark for the eurozone, rose by 14 basis points to 2.98%, reaching the highest level since July 8, 2011, and the largest increase in nearly three months, approaching the psychological level of 3%. The yield of the two-year bond rose by more than 5 basis points to nearly 3.30% at the end of the session, reaching the highest level since July 2008. The yield of the 30-year bond reached a new high since 2011.

The yield of the 10-year Italian bond, which measures the risk of peripheral European countries, jumped by 18 basis points to 4.96%, reaching the highest level in nearly eleven years and recording the largest single-day increase since early July. The spread between the Italian and German bond yields, which measures risk sentiment, rose to 200 basis points, the widest in six months. The yield of the 10-year UK bond rose by 20 basis points, marking the largest single-day increase since February of this year.

Analysts believe that the latest inflation data in Germany has cooled down and failed to trigger market expectations of a possible softening of the European Central Bank's policy stance. The risk premium of Italian debt has reached a six-month high due to the country's government lowering its economic growth forecast for the next two years and raising its budget deficit target. Analysts also believe that the continuous rise in oil prices has intensified concerns about the ongoing struggle of central banks in Europe and the United States to combat inflation. US oil fell more than 2% after rising above $95 for the first time since August last year, and Brent oil also fell from its high in November last year.

WTI crude oil futures for November fell $1.97, or 2.10%, to $91.71 per barrel. Brent futures for November fell $1.17, or 1.21%, to $95.38 per barrel. NYMEX October natural gas futures rose 6.6% to $2.945 per million British thermal units.

US oil WTI rose above $95 for the first time since August last year in early Asia-Pacific trading on Thursday, but then fell from its high of over a year and fell 2.27 dollars or 2.4% during the deepest drop in US stocks, falling 3.62 dollars from the daily high and losing the $92 integer level. However, US oil rose 12% in September, about to set the first consecutive four-month rise since May last year.

Brent futures for November, which are about to expire, rose above $97 during the day, and then fell 1.5% to $95 or more in US stock trading. The more active December futures briefly rose above $95, then fell the deepest 1.58 dollars or 1.7% after the fall, falling 2.56 dollars from the daily high and losing the $93 level, leaving the highest level in more than ten months since November last year.

US oil fell more than 2% after rising above $95 for the first time since August last year

The inventory in the Cushing area, the delivery location for US oil futures, fell by more than 900,000 barrels last week, dropping to the lowest level since July last year, to nearly 22 million barrels, and approaching the lowest operating level. There are also reports that Russia has no plans to lift the ban on fuel exports in the short term. UBS said that oil prices will remain high and face upward risks before the end of the year, and Brent oil will fluctuate in the range of $90 to $100.

European natural gas futures rose and fell, with the TTF Dutch natural gas benchmark rising 0.3% at the end of the day, continuing to fall below the 40 euro/megawatt-hour integer level, and falling from the highest level in a month. ICE UK natural gas rose 1.4% at the end of the day, but remained above 100 pence/calorie.

The US dollar fell below 106 but is set to rise for the 11th consecutive week, while the euro, yen, and pound have moved away from multi-month lows, and the offshore renminbi rose above 7.30 yuan.

After the release of US GDP data, the DXY, which measures the US dollar against six major currencies, fell 0.6% and fell below the 106 level, ending its five-day consecutive rise and falling from the highest level in ten months since the end of November last year, but is expected to rise for the 11th consecutive week.

The US dollar index rose 2.6% in September, the best monthly performance since May; it rose 3.3% in the third quarter, the largest quarterly increase since the third quarter of last year. According to analysis, the US dollar has benefited from rising US bond yields, safe-haven demand, and the relatively strong US economy.

The US dollar is pressuring the 106 level, deviating from its ten-month high, but is set to rise for the 11th consecutive week.

The euro against the US dollar has rebounded by 0.8% and returned above the 1.05 level, ending a seven-day decline and deviating from the nearly nine-month low since early December last year. The pound has risen by a maximum of 0.7% and briefly broke through 1.22, ending a six-day decline and deviating from the six-and-a-half-month low since mid-March.

The yen against the US dollar has slightly risen but is still below the 149 level, ending a four-day decline and deviating from the nearly one-year low since mid-October last year. Wall Street predicts that if the yen falls to 150, it will trigger central bank intervention. Bank of America predicts that the yen will fall to 153 by the end of the year and bottom out at 155 in the first quarter of next year.

The offshore renminbi against the US dollar has risen above 7.30 yuan, up 320 points from the previous day's closing, and rebounded 360 points from the daily low to a one-week high. The commodity currency Australian dollar has risen by more than 1%, deviating from the 11-month low since the end of October last year.

Mainstream cryptocurrencies are rising together. The largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, has risen by more than 3% and returned above the $27,000 level, reaching a one-week high. The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, has risen by nearly 4% and surpassed the $1,650 level, reaching a four-week high. However, both cryptocurrencies have experienced double-digit declines in the third quarter.

Gold has fallen for four consecutive days to a nearly seven-month low, while London zinc has risen by nearly 6%, aluminum by nearly 2%, copper by more than 1%, and nickel has returned to a 14-month low.

Attention is focused on US inflation data, and gold prices have fallen for four consecutive days. COMEX December gold futures closed down 0.65% at $1,878.60 per ounce, falling below the $1,880 level and hitting a new low of more than half a year since mid-March. However, silver futures closed slightly higher.

Spot gold has fallen by more than $17 or 0.9%, falling below the $1,860 level at one point, falling for four consecutive days to a nearly seven-month low since early March. Some analysts believe that the bet on long-term higher US interest rates has weakened the attractiveness of gold, which does not provide a fixed income.

The decline of the US dollar has significantly boosted London industrial base metals: The economic indicator "Dr. Copper" rose by $104 or 1.3%, reaching $8,200, reaching its highest level in nearly four months since early June. London aluminum rose by 1.8% to a two-month high, while London zinc rose by $144 or 5.8%, breaking through $2,600 to its highest level in nearly five months. London lead rose by 1.9% to move away from a one-month low.

However, London nickel fell by 0.6%, falling below $19,000 and returning to its lowest level in 14 months since July last year. It has fallen by 38% this year, the largest decline among LME metals, mainly due to the increase in supply from new factories in Asia. London tin fell by 1.3% to a six-week low.

Some analysts believe that the prices of zinc and other base metals have also benefited from the decline in inventories. Certified zinc inventories in LME registered warehouses have fallen to the lowest level since the end of May, indicating signs of a recovery in demand. Zinc and copper inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses have both decreased by 30% compared to last Friday, but copper inventories in the LME system are still at their highest level since May last year.