US Energy Giants: Oil Prices Near $100 and No Increase in Production, If the US Government Does Not Take Action, They Will Rise to $150

On Monday, executives from several American energy giants, including Western Oil, Chevron, and Continental Resources, spoke out. Many companies chose not to increase production despite oil prices approaching $100, citing inconsistent US energy policies that hinder oil production. Some echoed JPMorgan's recent claim of a supercycle with oil prices reaching $150 if the US government does not take action.

Western Oil: No Production Increase Despite Near $100 Oil Prices

Despite oil prices recently surpassing $90 and heading towards $100, Western Oil, in which Warren Buffett has made significant investments, stated that it will maintain stable oil production.

Vicki Hollub, CEO of Western Oil, stated on Monday, "In an imbalanced market, we will not significantly increase oil production. We will only increase production when we see market equilibrium. Even then, oil production will increase at a moderate pace."

Hollub pointed out that oil producers have learned from past mistakes and will proceed with caution, refraining from flooding the market with excessive crude oil simply because prices are rising. "There is more discipline here. How to do better and avoid oversupplying the market."

Hollub also stated that she has not seen any evidence of demand destruction. Even if oil prices do exceed $100 per barrel, she does not expect prices to remain at such high levels for an extended period, which would harm demand. On the other hand, she anticipates that even in an economic downturn, the decline in demand will not be significant enough to cause a substantial drop in oil prices.

Chevron: Inconsistent US Energy Policies Hinder Oil Production

On the same day, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth stated that inconsistent US energy policies hinder oil production. "I hear people say that our production has recovered to record levels. However, if we had better policies, we would surpass these levels."

Wirth believes that energy policies need to balance environmental concerns with affordability and reliability while maintaining stability. "We do need more consistent, predictable, and enduring policies to support our largest sector of the economy and our single largest lever for global competitiveness."

Continental Resources: No Plans for Production Increase, Oil Prices Could Rise to $150 if US Government Takes No Action

On Monday, billionaire Harold Hamm stated that if the US government takes no action and fails to encourage further exploration, oil prices could rise to $150 per barrel. Hamm controls Continental Resources, the largest shale producer in the Bakken Basin, the second-largest shale oil region in the US.

Hamm called for an end to the roller-coaster-like fluctuations in US energy policy, noting that the back-and-forth swings have led to increasing costs under different government leadership.

Doug Lawler, CEO of Continental Resources, also echoed Hamm's views. He stated that one day, oil production in the Permian Basin will reach its peak, just like the Bakken region in North Dakota and the Eagle Ford region in Texas. If there is no new production, people will see oil prices at $120-150. "This will have an impact on the entire system. Without policies that encourage new drilling, we will see greater pressure on oil prices."

Lawler said that even if oil prices break through the $100 mark, Continental Energy does not have plans for a significant increase in production. "Our investments are very cautious and aligned with our cash flow. Investing and producing as much oil as possible is not the way we create the greatest value." Lawler's statement is similar to the message conveyed by Western Oil Company.

JPMorgan Chase Calls for the "Super Cycle Return" of Crude Oil

Recently, JPMorgan Chase called for the "Super Cycle Return" of crude oil, predicting that oil prices will soar to $150 and that there will be multiple energy crises in the next decade. In the short or medium term, oil prices may rise to $150 per barrel, which is 62.6% higher than the current price of Brent crude. It is estimated that by 2030, the global oil deficit will expand to 7.1 million barrels per day.

JPMorgan Chase's crude oil market analysis has been quite accurate: it has been bearish on oil prices from 2013 to 2019, and then launched the "Super Cycle" series of reports in 2020, and has been in a wait-and-see mode this year.