Oil prices soar, shaking up a series of trading strategies on Wall Street!
The surge in oil prices may disrupt the current downward trend of inflation in Europe and the United States, prompting central banks to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period of time. Currently, the rise in oil prices has already strengthened the US dollar, and the market expects most currencies to remain weak, but some currencies of oil-exporting countries are expected to be less affected. In terms of the US stock market, there is a possibility that the leading sector will shift from technology stocks to energy stocks.
The recent surge in oil prices is forcing investors to rethink their asset placement. As the Federal Reserve will announce the results of its latest interest rate meeting on Wednesday, energy and its potential impact on inflation and economic growth have become one of the most hotly debated topics in the market. Some analysts believe that one of the most obvious effects of the current surge in oil prices is that the surge in oil prices will disrupt the downward trend of inflation and prevent the Fed from starting to cut interest rates as early as the market hopes. The surge in oil prices is creating a gap between the foreign exchange of oil-importing and exporting countries. Almost all currencies weakened against the dollar due to the impact of the decline in oil supply, especially the euro, yen, Swedish krona and other Middle Eastern currencies. A few other oil exporters such as Brazil and Canada may be able to weather the broader storm. Another asset class that has been hit by high oil prices is airline stocks. Rising fuel prices are squeezing airline profits, causing investors to sell stocks in industries such as aviation and logistics. The S & P Super Composite Aviation Index of 10 companies has fallen 20% since mid-July, making it one of the U.S. stocks that have been hit hardest in recent months. In contrast, European energy companies are expected to profit significantly from high oil prices. Energy stocks are a particularly big driver for the FTSE 100, the UK's blue-chip index. While the sector's weighting in the index is only about 13%, its 2022 earnings account for 26% of the index. In U.S. stocks, energy stocks are once again a hot trade on Wall Street, with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan strategists advising investors to increase their holdings. Some analysts believe that in the next few months, the energy sector will perform well and trigger a new trend of investing in large oil stocks whose stock prices are lagging behind. Even U.S. stocks will have sector rotation, and the leading sector will be expected to switch from technology stocks to energy stocks. In the bond market, U.S. and European bond yields have been climbing, in part because investors consider that interest rates will have to remain high for a longer period of time. In Germany, there is growing concern that expensive energy will hurt the country's industry. Two-year German bund yields have jumped to 3.2 per cent, compared with 2.9 per cent in early August.