For the past one hundred days, the U.S. stock market has not experienced a daily decline of more than 1.5%. Is this the calm before the storm?
As of the close on Monday, the S&P 500 index has experienced a consecutive 100 trading days with a closing decline of no more than 1.5%. Since reaching its peak this year, the index has only had four declines of more than 1% within a two-month period. Apart from that, the daily fluctuations have been minimal, reaching a level not seen since 2018. Some analysts believe that there is a higher possibility of a decline in the U.S. stock market in late September and October.
In the final days of summer, the US stock market continues to struggle, but the S&P 500 index has just reached a milestone of resilience not seen in five years.
As of the close of trading on Monday, September 18th, the S&P 500 index has closed with a decline of no more than 1.5% for the 100th consecutive trading day. Since reaching its peak earlier this year, the index has only experienced four declines of more than 1% within a two-month period. Apart from these declines, the daily fluctuations have been minimal, reaching a level not seen since 2018.
The resilience of the US stock market is partly due to the market's belief that the US economy can withstand the most aggressive interest rate policies of the Federal Reserve. In addition, investors continue to pour money into the stock market. Data shows that in the week ending September 13th, US exchange-traded funds saw a net inflow of $13.4 billion, marking the ninth week of net inflows in the past twelve weeks.
Some analysts believe:
This is quite unusual, but there is no reason for a significant decline in the US stock market. Unless the Federal Reserve surprises investors this week, there is no reason to readjust positions, as we know the rate hike cycle is coming to an end.
So far this year, the S&P 500 index has risen by nearly 16.5% in total.
Although the US stock market seems calm at the moment, some analysts believe that it may decline in the remaining days of September. Statistics have shown that over the past twenty years, the US stock market typically reaches its monthly peak around the 11th trading day of September, which is this Monday. Data also shows that the average decline in the US stock market from mid-September to the end of the month is about 2%. Factors that could weigh on the US stock market in late September and October include rising energy prices and geopolitical challenges.
Last week, former US Treasury Secretary Summers, known as the "inflation hawk," stated that the window for achieving a soft landing is very narrow, and there is currently no evidence that the current US economy is a "2% inflation economy."
Summers believes there are three possibilities: a soft landing, an inflationary economy that cannot land below 3%, and a hard landing, which refers to the cumulative impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes on the economy. He stated that the probability of these three scenarios is all about one-third.
Summers also said:
People need to be very cautious when announcing victory over inflation - they need to be very careful with certain assets, especially US stocks. The current pricing of US stocks may be a bit too perfect.